[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":86},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-trump-announces-us-x-iran-ceasefire-over-byptptpt-20260607232555290":3},{"event":4,"related":42},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":17,"probability":18,"volume24hr":19,"volume1wk":20,"liquidity":21,"openInterest":22,"trendScore":23,"active":24,"closed":25,"featured":24,"startDate":26,"endDate":27,"createdAtRemote":28,"updatedAtRemote":29,"affiliateUrl":30,"polymarketUrl":30,"searchKeywords":31,"syncedAt":39,"createdAt":40,"marketCount":41},"574642","trump-announces-us-x-iran-ceasefire-over-byptptpt-20260607232555290","Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that no ceasefire between the United States and Iran is in effect between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nQualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any US-Iran ceasefire commitment to refrain from military hostilities in effect, including statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement. The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without  extension will not alone qualify. \n\nAnnouncements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran will not qualify. \n\nStatements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify.\n\nInformal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.\n\nWritten public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the US government and the US military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n\nNote: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.","\"Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?\" is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether President Trump, the US government, or the US military will publicly and officially state that no ceasefire between the United States and Iran is in effect by the market deadline of 11:59 PM ET on June 30, 2026. The forecast is narrowly focused on a qualifying announcement, not on whether hostilities actually resume or whether a prior ceasefire simply expires. Traders are watching for an official statement from Donald Trump, a public US government or military declaration, or other credible reporting that clearly says the ceasefire commitment has ended. References to violations, breaches, leaks, or unnamed sources do not count. Current market probability is about 5.15%, suggesting sentiment leans strongly toward a No resolution. As a prediction market event in the Iran and Middle East category, it reflects broader uncertainty around US-Iran relations, ceasefire language, and the durability of any diplomatic or military restraint during the forecast window, which runs from June 9, 2026 through the June 30 deadline.","GEOPOLITICS","Iran",[11,13,14,15,16],"Geopolitics","Middle East","Trump","Iran Ceasefire","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Ftrump-announces-us-x-iran-ceasefire-over-by-FgM_giNPEqIQ.jpg",5.15,189103.925855,2056823.9396519987,162267.25681,560211.556504,744052.5961850996,true,false,"2026-06-09T02:06:46.864Z","2026-06-30T19:00:00.000Z","2026-06-09T01:53:06.359Z","2026-06-16T10:05:55.975Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Ftrump-announces-us-x-iran-ceasefire-over-byptptpt-20260607232555290?r=predstack",[32,33,34,35,36,37,38],"trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by...?","trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by...? prediction","trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by...? odds","trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by...? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-16T10:09:35.085Z","2026-06-16T10:07:52.961Z",0,[43,59,70],{"id":44,"title":45,"slug":46,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":47,"probability":41,"createdAt":54,"updatedAt":55,"resolutionDate":56,"description":57,"summary":57,"volume1wk":58,"featured":24},"357807","US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?","us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by",[11,15,48,16,49,50,51,13,52,53],"ceasefire","Agreement","10-point","U.S. x Iran","Politics","Peace Deal","2026-05-30T10:42:43.363Z","2026-06-16T10:07:37.026Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",80346197.77405979,{"id":60,"title":61,"slug":62,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":63,"probability":64,"createdAt":65,"updatedAt":66,"resolutionDate":67,"description":68,"summary":68,"volume1wk":69,"featured":24},"504099","Iran ceasefire continues through...?","iran-ceasefire-continues-through",[11,52,16,13],100,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.405Z","2026-05-30T10:36:50.144Z",null,"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET).  Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nThe US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date. \n\nConfirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.\n\nA qualifying \"kinetic military action\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. \n\nKinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify. \n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",25312735.30568604,{"id":71,"title":72,"slug":73,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":74,"probability":80,"createdAt":81,"updatedAt":82,"resolutionDate":83,"description":84,"summary":84,"volume1wk":85,"featured":24},"429426","What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?","what-iranian-demands-will-trump-agree-to-by-may-31",[11,75,76,16,15,77,78,13,52,51,79],"Sanctions","toll","Strait of Hormuz","Enrich","Uranium",11.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.605Z","2026-05-30T10:37:10.758Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nContinued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment.\n\nThe United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if:\n\n- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran.\n- Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.\n\nAgreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.\n\nAny definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.",3880525.7414259994,1781606224382]