[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":88},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-texas-senate-republican-primary-runoff-margin-of-victory":3},{"event":4,"related":45},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":20,"probability":21,"volume24hr":22,"volume1wk":23,"liquidity":24,"openInterest":25,"trendScore":26,"active":27,"closed":28,"featured":28,"startDate":29,"endDate":30,"createdAtRemote":31,"updatedAtRemote":32,"affiliateUrl":33,"polymarketUrl":33,"searchKeywords":34,"syncedAt":42,"createdAt":43,"marketCount":44},"246044","texas-senate-republican-primary-runoff-margin-of-victory","Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory","The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).\n\nIf two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https:\u002F\u002Felections.sos.state.tx.us\u002Findex.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.","Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory is a political prediction market focused on how large the winning margin will be in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election. The market forecasts the absolute difference in vote share between the first- and second-place candidates, with resolution tied to the official Texas vote count after the election is made official. The runoff is scheduled for May 26, 2026, and the market remains open for resolution until November 30, 2026, if the result is not known definitively earlier.\n\nThis event matters because it turns a closely watched Texas Senate primary into a measurable event prediction, allowing traders to express market sentiment not just on who wins, but on how decisive the result is. Tags and related keywords point to key political entities and race context, including Texas Senate, Cornyn, and Paxton, along with primaries, elections, and US election coverage.\n\nCurrent market probability is listed at 99.75%, suggesting strong expectation around the event structure being resolved, while the final bracket depends on the certified vote margin. As with other prediction markets, odds reflect trader expectations rather than certainty.","POLITICS","Primaries",[11,13,14,15,16,17,18,19],"Paxton","Politics","Texas Senate","Elections","Cornyn","US Election","Rewards 50, 4.5, 100","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Ftexas-flag-map-market-a5dc3bc9de.png",99.75,5828.999999999999,130087.85366499997,138083.32459,70337.596761,69557.5210175,true,false,"2026-03-04T17:50:22.873Z","2026-05-25T00:00:00.000Z","2026-03-04T16:59:20.101Z","2026-05-30T10:30:01.975Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Ftexas-senate-republican-primary-runoff-margin-of-victory?r=predstack",[35,36,37,38,39,40,41],"texas senate republican primary runoff margin of victory","texas senate republican primary runoff margin of victory prediction","texas senate republican primary runoff margin of victory odds","texas senate republican primary runoff margin of victory probability","political prediction market","political forecast","political probability","2026-06-05T13:12:53.171Z","2026-05-30T10:42:55.045Z",0,[46,59,74],{"id":47,"title":48,"slug":49,"category":10,"subcategory":14,"tags":50,"probability":44,"createdAt":54,"updatedAt":55,"resolutionDate":56,"description":57,"summary":57,"volume1wk":58,"featured":27},"438327","Iran closes its airspace by...?","iran-closes-its-airspace-by",[14,51,52,53],"Geopolitics","U.S. x Iran","Iran","2026-05-30T10:42:44.156Z","2026-05-30T10:38:40.231Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14\u002F) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firanian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14\u002F). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.aa.com.tr\u002Fen\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz\u002F3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.intellinews.com\u002Firan-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997\u002F).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.",6620506.11378,{"id":60,"title":61,"slug":62,"category":10,"subcategory":14,"tags":63,"probability":68,"createdAt":69,"updatedAt":70,"resolutionDate":71,"description":72,"summary":72,"volume1wk":73,"featured":27},"31875","Republican Presidential Nominee 2028","republican-presidential-nominee-2028",[14,18,16,64,65,66,11,67],"World Elections","Global Elections","Earn 4%","United States",2.65,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.975Z","2026-06-16T10:03:36.054Z","2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",4777429.576322999,{"id":75,"title":76,"slug":77,"category":10,"subcategory":14,"tags":78,"probability":44,"createdAt":83,"updatedAt":84,"resolutionDate":85,"description":86,"summary":86,"volume1wk":87,"featured":27},"371649","US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?","us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-329",[14,79,53,80,81,52,51,82],"Iran Ceasefire","Vance","Trump","Peace Deal","2026-05-30T10:42:45.013Z","2026-06-16T10:07:26.988Z","2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. \n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.  \n\nThe meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.",4565895.467737994,1781809667453]