[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":84},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-texas-senate-republican-primary-runoff-margin-of-victory-larger-brackets":3},{"event":4,"related":44},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":19,"probability":20,"volume24hr":21,"volume1wk":22,"liquidity":23,"openInterest":24,"trendScore":25,"active":26,"closed":27,"featured":27,"startDate":28,"endDate":29,"createdAtRemote":30,"updatedAtRemote":31,"affiliateUrl":32,"polymarketUrl":32,"searchKeywords":33,"syncedAt":41,"createdAt":42,"marketCount":43},"514577","texas-senate-republican-primary-runoff-margin-of-victory-larger-brackets","Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory (Larger Brackets)","The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).\n\nIf two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https:\u002F\u002Felections.sos.state.tx.us\u002Findex.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.","Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory (Larger Brackets) is a political prediction market focused on how wide the winning margin will be in the Texas Senate Republican primary runoff. The forecast centers on the absolute difference in valid vote percentages between the first- and second-place candidates, with the market resolving to a larger bracket if the reported margin falls exactly between two ranges. The runoff is scheduled for May 26, 2026, and the market will use the official Texas vote count once results are certified by the State of Texas or confirmed by strong credible reporting. If a recount delays certification, the event remains open until the result is official. Traders are watching a contest tied to Texas Senate, US elections, and the Republican primary environment, with Cornyn and Paxton among the relevant political names associated with the race. Current market probability is about 1.85%, suggesting traders assign a low chance to the specific bracket outcome reflected in this listing. As a prediction market event, it captures market sentiment on the expected outcome and margin of victory rather than simply who wins the runoff.","POLITICS","Texas Senate",[11,13,14,15,16,17,18],"US Election","Cornyn","Primaries","Politics","Paxton","Elections","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Ftexas-flag-map-market-a5dc3bc9de.png",1.85,12487.720146000003,107148.693267,95120.88497,35546.73310800001,57412.6450471,true,false,"2026-05-22T22:32:33.903Z","2026-05-26T00:00:00.000Z","2026-05-22T21:17:19.809Z","2026-05-30T10:38:09.611Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Ftexas-senate-republican-primary-runoff-margin-of-victory-larger-brackets?r=predstack",[34,35,36,37,38,39,40],"texas senate republican primary runoff margin of victory (larger brackets)","texas senate republican primary runoff margin of victory (larger brackets) prediction","texas senate republican primary runoff margin of victory (larger brackets) odds","texas senate republican primary runoff margin of victory (larger brackets) probability","political prediction market","political forecast","political probability","2026-06-05T13:14:11.961Z","2026-05-30T10:42:56.288Z",0,[45,56,71],{"id":46,"title":47,"slug":48,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":49,"probability":51,"createdAt":52,"updatedAt":53,"resolutionDate":29,"description":54,"summary":54,"volume1wk":55,"featured":27},"246152","Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff","turnout-in-texas-senate-republican-primary-runoff",[11,16,17,18,14,15,13,50],"rewards 100, 4.5, 100",0.05,"2026-05-30T10:43:21.810Z","2026-05-30T10:31:50.826Z","The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.  \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.sos.state.tx.us\u002Findex.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.",13080.791656999998,{"id":57,"title":58,"slug":59,"category":10,"subcategory":16,"tags":60,"probability":65,"createdAt":66,"updatedAt":67,"resolutionDate":68,"description":69,"summary":69,"volume1wk":70,"featured":26},"31875","Republican Presidential Nominee 2028","republican-presidential-nominee-2028",[16,13,18,61,62,63,15,64],"World Elections","Global Elections","Earn 4%","United States",2.75,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.975Z","2026-05-30T10:39:47.083Z","2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",9249335.794150999,{"id":72,"title":73,"slug":74,"category":10,"subcategory":16,"tags":75,"probability":43,"createdAt":79,"updatedAt":80,"resolutionDate":81,"description":82,"summary":82,"volume1wk":83,"featured":26},"438327","Iran closes its airspace by...?","iran-closes-its-airspace-by",[16,76,77,78],"Geopolitics","U.S. x Iran","Iran","2026-05-30T10:42:44.156Z","2026-05-30T10:38:40.231Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14\u002F) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firanian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14\u002F). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.aa.com.tr\u002Fen\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz\u002F3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.intellinews.com\u002Firan-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997\u002F).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.",6620506.11378,1780676603356]