[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":88},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-june-15":3},{"event":4,"related":46},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":21,"probability":22,"volume24hr":23,"volume1wk":24,"liquidity":25,"openInterest":26,"trendScore":27,"active":28,"closed":29,"featured":29,"startDate":30,"endDate":31,"createdAtRemote":32,"updatedAtRemote":33,"affiliateUrl":34,"polymarketUrl":34,"searchKeywords":35,"syncedAt":43,"createdAt":44,"marketCount":45},"524097","strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-june-15","Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?","This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nDaily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https:\u002F\u002Fportwatch.imf.org\u002Fpages\u002Fcb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.","Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? is a prediction market in the Economy category tracking whether ship transit through the Strait of Hormuz will reach a 7-day moving average of at least 60 arrivals on or before June 15, 2026. The forecast is based on IMF Portwatch transit calls data, covering container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships that are reported in the source dataset. In practical terms, traders are betting on whether maritime traffic in one of the world’s most strategically important chokepoints will recover to a level treated as “normal” by the market’s threshold. This matters because the Strait of Hormuz is closely tied to global oil flows, Iran-related geopolitics, and broader economic and shipping conditions. The market opened on May 26, 2026 and will resolve according to the first qualifying IMF Portwatch publication within the event window, or by the final date if no qualifying value appears. Current market probability is about 7.5%, suggesting traders see the expected outcome as unlikely but still possible before the deadline.","ECONOMY","transit",[11,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20],"Iran","Oil","Economy","Geopolitics","U.S. x Iran","ships","Strait of Hormuz","Hormuz","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwill-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg",7.5,623639.3362009998,1537804.481213998,310408.2121,857461.208296,835242.6548846994,true,false,"2026-05-26T05:16:54.399Z","2026-06-15T00:00:00.000Z","2026-05-25T16:32:00.248Z","2026-05-30T10:31:45.641Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fstrait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-june-15?r=predstack",[36,37,38,39,40,41,42],"strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15?","strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15? prediction","strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15? odds","strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15? probability","economy prediction market","economic forecast","economic probability","2026-06-05T10:34:50.284Z","2026-05-30T10:42:46.055Z",0,[47,62,75],{"id":48,"title":49,"slug":50,"category":10,"subcategory":51,"tags":52,"probability":56,"createdAt":57,"updatedAt":58,"resolutionDate":59,"description":60,"summary":60,"volume1wk":61,"featured":29},"385557","Largest Company end of May?","largest-company-end-of-may-167","Tech",[51,15,53,54,55],"Finance","Big Tech","Business",99.95,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.200Z","2026-05-30T10:37:43.438Z","2026-05-31T06:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31, 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",2345554.2487270003,{"id":63,"title":64,"slug":65,"category":10,"subcategory":19,"tags":66,"probability":69,"createdAt":70,"updatedAt":71,"resolutionDate":72,"description":73,"summary":73,"volume1wk":74,"featured":29},"455867","Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?","strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31",[19,15,67,68,17,18,13,14,16],"Iran Ceasefire","Politics",56,"2026-05-30T10:42:46.752Z","2026-05-30T10:36:40.524Z","2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nDaily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https:\u002F\u002Fportwatch.imf.org\u002Fpages\u002Fcb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",1175859.2980450026,{"id":76,"title":77,"slug":78,"category":10,"subcategory":15,"tags":79,"probability":82,"createdAt":83,"updatedAt":84,"resolutionDate":85,"description":86,"summary":86,"volume1wk":87,"featured":29},"432180","Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?","will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-may-31",[15,80,13,17,14,19,20,16,81],"close","Trump",11.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:47.280Z","2026-05-30T10:37:07.745Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe number of daily transit calls\u002Farrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https:\u002F\u002Fportwatch.imf.org\u002Fpages\u002Fcb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",952303.4898229997,1780676620234]