[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":88},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31":3},{"event":4,"related":46},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":21,"probability":22,"volume24hr":23,"volume1wk":24,"liquidity":25,"openInterest":26,"trendScore":27,"active":28,"closed":29,"featured":29,"startDate":30,"endDate":31,"createdAtRemote":32,"updatedAtRemote":33,"affiliateUrl":34,"polymarketUrl":34,"searchKeywords":35,"syncedAt":43,"createdAt":44,"marketCount":45},"455867","strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31","Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?","This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nDaily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https:\u002F\u002Fportwatch.imf.org\u002Fpages\u002Fcb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.","Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? is a prediction market on whether shipping activity through one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints will recover to standard levels before the end of July 2026. The forecasted outcome is based on IMF Portwatch data: the market resolves “Yes” if the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reaches at least 60 on any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. If that threshold is not published in time, the market resolves “No.”\n\nThis economy and geopolitics event matters because the Strait of Hormuz is a critical route for tankers, container ships, dry bulk cargo, and other vessels, making traffic levels a useful signal for regional stability and trade flow. Tags such as Iran, Oil, U.S. x Iran, and Iran Ceasefire highlight the broader political context traders are watching. Current market probability is about 56%, suggesting sentiment is slightly tilted toward normal traffic returning by the deadline, though the outcome remains uncertain and fully dependent on IMF Portwatch publications through July 31, 2026.","ECONOMY","Strait of Hormuz",[11,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20],"Economy","Iran Ceasefire","Politics","U.S. x Iran","ships","Iran","Oil","Geopolitics","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwill-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg",56,158531.02144200003,1175859.2980450026,123131.0552,421026.800316,456649.5111745008,true,false,"2026-05-11T13:18:59.354Z","2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z","2026-05-06T17:41:53.276Z","2026-05-30T10:36:40.524Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fstrait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31?r=predstack",[36,37,38,39,40,41,42],"strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 31?","strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 31? prediction","strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 31? odds","strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 31? probability","economy prediction market","economic forecast","economic probability","2026-06-05T10:35:35.508Z","2026-05-30T10:42:46.752Z",0,[47,62,75],{"id":48,"title":49,"slug":50,"category":10,"subcategory":51,"tags":52,"probability":56,"createdAt":57,"updatedAt":58,"resolutionDate":59,"description":60,"summary":60,"volume1wk":61,"featured":29},"385557","Largest Company end of May?","largest-company-end-of-may-167","Tech",[51,13,53,54,55],"Finance","Big Tech","Business",99.95,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.200Z","2026-05-30T10:37:43.438Z","2026-05-31T06:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31, 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",2345554.2487270003,{"id":63,"title":64,"slug":65,"category":10,"subcategory":66,"tags":67,"probability":69,"createdAt":70,"updatedAt":71,"resolutionDate":72,"description":73,"summary":73,"volume1wk":74,"featured":29},"524097","Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?","strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-june-15","transit",[66,18,19,13,20,16,17,11,68],"Hormuz",7.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:46.055Z","2026-05-30T10:31:45.641Z","2026-06-15T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nDaily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https:\u002F\u002Fportwatch.imf.org\u002Fpages\u002Fcb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",1537804.481213998,{"id":76,"title":77,"slug":78,"category":10,"subcategory":13,"tags":79,"probability":82,"createdAt":83,"updatedAt":84,"resolutionDate":85,"description":86,"summary":86,"volume1wk":87,"featured":29},"432180","Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?","will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-may-31",[13,80,18,16,19,11,68,20,81],"close","Trump",11.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:47.280Z","2026-05-30T10:37:07.745Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe number of daily transit calls\u002Farrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https:\u002F\u002Fportwatch.imf.org\u002Fpages\u002Fcb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",952303.4898229997,1780676620072]