[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":86},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31":3},{"event":4,"related":47},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":22,"probability":23,"volume24hr":24,"volume1wk":25,"liquidity":26,"openInterest":27,"trendScore":28,"active":29,"closed":30,"featured":30,"startDate":31,"endDate":32,"createdAtRemote":33,"updatedAtRemote":34,"affiliateUrl":35,"polymarketUrl":35,"searchKeywords":36,"syncedAt":44,"createdAt":45,"marketCount":46},"455875","strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?","This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nDaily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https:\u002F\u002Fportwatch.imf.org\u002Fpages\u002Fcb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.","\"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?\" is a prediction market focused on whether shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz will recover to a seven-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls, as measured by IMF Portwatch. The event centers on daily ship arrivals in one of the world’s most strategically important chokepoints, where traffic includes container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker vessels. It matters because changes in Hormuz transit can signal shifts in geopolitical risk, Iran-related tensions, and broader shipping conditions affecting global trade. The market will resolve to Yes if IMF Portwatch publishes the required 7-day average at or above 60 on any date between market creation and December 31, 2026; otherwise it resolves No. The relevant forecast period runs from May 11, 2026 through the end of 2026. Current market probability is about 82.5%, suggesting traders expect a return to normal traffic levels, though that outcome is not guaranteed. As an economy prediction market in the ships subcategory, it reflects market sentiment around transit trends, odds, and event prediction based on official IMF Portwatch data.","ECONOMY","ships",[11,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21],"Economy","Iran Ceasefire","transit","Iran","Politics","Hormuz","Geopolitics","U.S. x Iran","Strait of Hormuz","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwill-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg",82.5,5328.978155000001,157161.04153199997,129195.868,121512.765569,75651.9751371,true,false,"2026-05-11T13:06:32.524Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2026-05-06T17:46:53.625Z","2026-05-30T10:32:19.893Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fstrait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31?r=predstack",[37,38,39,40,41,42,43],"strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by december 31?","strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by december 31? prediction","strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by december 31? odds","strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by december 31? probability","economy prediction market","economic forecast","economic probability","2026-06-05T13:11:10.906Z","2026-05-30T10:42:53.539Z",0,[48,63,75],{"id":49,"title":50,"slug":51,"category":10,"subcategory":52,"tags":53,"probability":57,"createdAt":58,"updatedAt":59,"resolutionDate":60,"description":61,"summary":61,"volume1wk":62,"featured":30},"385557","Largest Company end of May?","largest-company-end-of-may-167","Tech",[52,13,54,55,56],"Finance","Big Tech","Business",99.95,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.200Z","2026-05-30T10:37:43.438Z","2026-05-31T06:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31, 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",2345554.2487270003,{"id":64,"title":65,"slug":66,"category":10,"subcategory":15,"tags":67,"probability":69,"createdAt":70,"updatedAt":71,"resolutionDate":72,"description":73,"summary":73,"volume1wk":74,"featured":30},"524097","Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?","strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-june-15",[15,16,68,13,19,20,11,21,18],"Oil",7.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:46.055Z","2026-05-30T10:31:45.641Z","2026-06-15T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nDaily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https:\u002F\u002Fportwatch.imf.org\u002Fpages\u002Fcb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",1537804.481213998,{"id":76,"title":77,"slug":78,"category":10,"subcategory":21,"tags":79,"probability":80,"createdAt":81,"updatedAt":82,"resolutionDate":83,"description":84,"summary":84,"volume1wk":85,"featured":30},"455867","Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?","strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31",[21,13,14,17,20,11,16,68,19],56,"2026-05-30T10:42:46.752Z","2026-05-30T10:36:40.524Z","2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nDaily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https:\u002F\u002Fportwatch.imf.org\u002Fpages\u002Fcb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",1175859.2980450026,1780676620039]