[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":86},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-so-paulo-governor-election-winner":3},{"event":4,"related":42},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":17,"probability":18,"volume24hr":19,"volume1wk":20,"liquidity":21,"openInterest":22,"trendScore":23,"active":24,"closed":25,"featured":25,"startDate":26,"endDate":27,"createdAtRemote":28,"updatedAtRemote":29,"affiliateUrl":30,"polymarketUrl":30,"searchKeywords":31,"syncedAt":39,"createdAt":40,"marketCount":41},"421102","so-paulo-governor-election-winner","São Paulo Governor Election Winner","The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br\u002Feleicoes\u002Fresultados-eleicoes).","São Paulo Governor Election Winner is a political prediction market tracking who will win the São Paulo gubernatorial election in Brazil. The vote is scheduled for October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026 if no candidate secures a majority in the first round. The market will resolve to the candidate confirmed as the election winner, based on credible reporting or, if needed, the official results from Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE). Temporary or interim governors appointed before the election do not count for resolution purposes. \n\nThis event matters because São Paulo is Brazil’s largest and most influential state, making the governor race a closely watched test of political strength ahead of the 2026 election cycle. As a forecast, the market reflects trader expectations about the expected outcome rather than a fixed result. Current market probability places the leading outcome at about 87%, indicating strong but not certain market sentiment behind one candidate or result. The prediction market remains active through the election date, with a fallback deadline of June 30, 2027 if the winner is not known sooner.","POLITICS","Brazil",[11,13,14,15,16],"Main Election","Politics","Global Elections","Elections","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fso-paulo-governor-election-winner-ivmUxnBXf3pe.png",87,3274.368178,12037.808688000001,136686.34347,17040.701237,32585.7953894,true,false,"2026-04-27T21:30:05.444Z","2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z","2026-04-26T19:20:55.155Z","2026-06-16T10:03:00.912Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fso-paulo-governor-election-winner?r=predstack",[32,33,34,35,36,37,38],"são paulo governor election winner","são paulo governor election winner prediction","são paulo governor election winner odds","são paulo governor election winner probability","political prediction market","political forecast","political probability","2026-06-16T10:32:14.915Z","2026-06-16T10:08:30.745Z",0,[43,56,72],{"id":44,"title":45,"slug":46,"category":10,"subcategory":14,"tags":47,"probability":41,"createdAt":51,"updatedAt":52,"resolutionDate":53,"description":54,"summary":54,"volume1wk":55,"featured":24},"438327","Iran closes its airspace by...?","iran-closes-its-airspace-by",[14,48,49,50],"Geopolitics","U.S. x Iran","Iran","2026-05-30T10:42:44.156Z","2026-05-30T10:38:40.231Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14\u002F) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firanian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14\u002F). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.aa.com.tr\u002Fen\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz\u002F3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.intellinews.com\u002Firan-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997\u002F).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.",6620506.11378,{"id":57,"title":58,"slug":59,"category":10,"subcategory":14,"tags":60,"probability":66,"createdAt":67,"updatedAt":68,"resolutionDate":69,"description":70,"summary":70,"volume1wk":71,"featured":24},"31875","Republican Presidential Nominee 2028","republican-presidential-nominee-2028",[14,61,16,62,15,63,64,65],"US Election","World Elections","Earn 4%","Primaries","United States",2.65,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.975Z","2026-06-16T10:03:36.054Z","2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",4777429.576322999,{"id":73,"title":74,"slug":75,"category":10,"subcategory":14,"tags":76,"probability":41,"createdAt":81,"updatedAt":82,"resolutionDate":83,"description":84,"summary":84,"volume1wk":85,"featured":24},"371649","US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?","us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-329",[14,77,50,78,79,49,48,80],"Iran Ceasefire","Vance","Trump","Peace Deal","2026-05-30T10:42:45.013Z","2026-06-16T10:07:26.988Z","2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. \n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.  \n\nThe meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.",4565895.467737994,1781606231182]