[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":85},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by":3},{"event":4,"related":44},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":19,"probability":20,"volume24hr":21,"volume1wk":22,"liquidity":23,"openInterest":24,"trendScore":25,"active":26,"closed":27,"featured":27,"startDate":28,"endDate":29,"createdAtRemote":30,"updatedAtRemote":31,"affiliateUrl":32,"polymarketUrl":32,"searchKeywords":33,"syncedAt":41,"createdAt":42,"marketCount":43},"486199","russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by","Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA ceasefire refers to any mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries, and which constitutes a general suspension of direct kinetic military engagement across the primary theater of the overall conflict. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause (including holiday ceasefires) will count provided they otherwise qualify under this market’s rules. \n\nAny form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.\n\nAny calendar day (EET) during which the ceasefire is in effect (including the first day of the ceasefire) will count towards the 10-day total. The required 10 day period will end at 11:59 PM EET on the 10th day (inclusive). If a qualifying ceasefire goes into effect prior to this market’s end date, this market will remain open until the ceasefire is no longer in effect, or until the 10 calendar days have been reached. \n\nA ceasefire is considered no longer in effect when a consensus of credible reporting indicates the general suspension of hostilities has substantively ended across the primary theater. Temporary or technical lapses or expiration of a formal ceasefire term, isolated incidents, localized violations, or accusations alone will not invalidate the ceasefire provided the general suspension of hostilities across the primary theater continues. Where official government statements conflict with a consensus of credible field reporting, the reporting will take precedence over the government statements. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.\n\nExamples of qualifying Ceasefires:\n\nApril 8, 2026 US–Iran ceasefire: The United States and Iran publicly announced and implemented a mutually agreed ceasefire framework intended to broadly halt direct military hostilities between the two countries. Despite subsequent maritime confrontations, alleged violations, isolated retaliatory strikes, and disputes regarding compliance, the broader ceasefire framework continued to function and widescale fighting across the primary theater did not resume.\n\nNovember 27, 2024 Israel–Hezbollah ceasefire: Israel and Hezbollah implemented a broadly operative ceasefire framework brokered through international mediators that substantially reduced hostilities across southern Lebanon and northern Israel, including the effective halt of Israel’s major ground offensive into Lebanon and a significant reduction in Hezbollah rocket fire. Although the ceasefire was not formally announced through a single joint declaration by both parties and public statements differed in framing and characterization, a consensus of credible reporting confirmed the arrangement had been mutually agreed and implemented in practice. Despite continued isolated strikes, alleged violations, and disputes regarding compliance, credible reporting broadly treated the ceasefire as remaining operational and widescale fighting across the primary theater of the conflict did not resume.\n\nExamples of non qualifying Ceasefires:\n\nNovember 24, 2023 Israel–Hamas humanitarian pause: Although it was a mutually agreed and publicly announced broad suspension of hostilities across Gaza, the ceasefire framework remained in effect for only approximately 7 days before wide-scale fighting resumed, failing the required 10-calendar-day duration requirement. Ceasefire violations prior to November 30, would not have invalidated the ceasefire. \n\nJuly 22, 2022 Black Sea Grain Initiative: Although Russia and Ukraine entered into internationally brokered agreements governing grain exports and reducing risks to commercial shipping in the Black Sea, the arrangement did not constitute a general suspension of direct military engagement across the primary theater of the war. Hostilities continued across Ukraine throughout the duration of the agreement and the arrangement applied only to specific categories of activity and geographic areas.\n\nMay 2023 Sudan ceasefires (SAF–RSF): Although the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) publicly agreed to multiple internationally brokered ceasefires, a consensus of credible reporting indicated that the general suspension of hostilities across the primary theater never substantively took effect and large-scale fighting broadly continued throughout the ceasefire periods. While some temporary reductions in violence and localized humanitarian access reportedly occurred in certain areas, artillery fire, airstrikes, urban combat, troop movements, and offensive operations continued across major parts of Sudan almost immediately after implementation. Credible reporting broadly treated the ceasefires as having failed or collapsed in practice despite technically remaining in force on paper.","Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Russia and Ukraine will enter a qualifying ceasefire by the specified deadline and keep it in effect for at least 10 consecutive calendar days. The event focuses on a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement across the main theater of the war, confirmed by official announcement or credible reporting, rather than a limited pause, humanitarian lull, or partial restriction. The market resolves based on a consensus of credible sources, with the result depending on whether a broader truce, peace deal, or ceasefire framework meets the event rules before 11:59 PM EET on the end date, currently set for December 31, 2026. As a geopolitical forecast tied to the Russia-Ukraine war, the market draws attention to developments involving Vladimir Putin, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine, and, indirectly, Donald Trump-related diplomacy or policy expectations. Current market probability is about 4.5%, suggesting traders see a ceasefire as possible but not the expected outcome. That pricing reflects cautious market sentiment around negotiations, battlefield conditions, and the difficulty of sustaining any agreement long enough to satisfy the 10-day threshold.","GEOPOLITICS","putin",[11,13,14,15,16,17,18],"Ukraine","zelensky","Trump","Geopolitics","Ukraine Peace Deal","zelenskyy","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Frussia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2025-w2voYOygx80B.jpg",4.5,3075.139092,58695.68976,165658.77002,80084.04904799999,52278.030478,true,false,"2026-05-16T01:31:00.578Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2026-05-14T23:18:08.514Z","2026-05-30T10:37:03.105Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Frussia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by?r=predstack",[34,35,36,37,38,39,40],"russia x ukraine ceasefire by...?","russia x ukraine ceasefire by...? prediction","russia x ukraine ceasefire by...? odds","russia x ukraine ceasefire by...? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-05T13:19:37.003Z","2026-05-30T10:43:01.225Z",0,[45,59,74],{"id":46,"title":47,"slug":48,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":49,"probability":54,"createdAt":55,"updatedAt":56,"resolutionDate":29,"description":57,"summary":57,"volume1wk":58,"featured":27},"166793","Will Russia invade another country in 2026?","will-russia-invade-another-country-in-2026",[11,50,16,51,52,53],"Russia","Politics","Military Actions","Armenia",12.5,"2026-05-30T10:43:04.132Z","2026-05-30T10:37:27.961Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",45256.642485000004,{"id":60,"title":61,"slug":62,"category":10,"subcategory":63,"tags":64,"probability":43,"createdAt":70,"updatedAt":71,"resolutionDate":29,"description":72,"summary":72,"volume1wk":73,"featured":26},"357807","US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?","us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by","Iran",[63,15,65,66,67,68,69,16,51],"ceasefire","Iran Ceasefire","Agreement","10-point","U.S. x Iran","2026-05-30T10:42:43.363Z","2026-05-30T10:40:08.539Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",55575856.145219125,{"id":75,"title":76,"slug":77,"category":10,"subcategory":63,"tags":78,"probability":79,"createdAt":80,"updatedAt":81,"resolutionDate":82,"description":83,"summary":83,"volume1wk":84,"featured":26},"504099","Iran ceasefire continues through...?","iran-ceasefire-continues-through",[63,51,66,16],100,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.405Z","2026-05-30T10:36:50.144Z",null,"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET).  Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nThe US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date. \n\nConfirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.\n\nA qualifying \"kinetic military action\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. \n\nKinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify. \n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",25312735.30568604,1780676661766]