[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":82},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-russia-nuclear-test-by":3},{"event":4,"related":40},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":17,"probability":18,"volume24hr":18,"volume1wk":19,"liquidity":20,"openInterest":21,"trendScore":22,"active":23,"closed":24,"featured":24,"startDate":25,"endDate":26,"createdAtRemote":27,"updatedAtRemote":28,"affiliateUrl":29,"polymarketUrl":29,"searchKeywords":30,"syncedAt":38,"createdAt":39,"marketCount":18},"73923","russia-nuclear-test-by","Russia nuclear test by...?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.\n\nAccidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as \"dirty bombs\"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nTests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 \"Vela Incident\" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.","“Russia nuclear test by...?” is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Russia will conduct a nuclear test by the listed deadline. The event resolves to Yes if Russia carries out an intentional non-combat detonation that produces a nuclear chain reaction, including fission or fusion, and to No otherwise. Accidents, dirty bombs, or actions by third parties do not count, and the resolution will rely on a broad consensus of credible reporting. This makes the market a focused forecast on nuclear escalation risk, Russia’s military signaling, and the wider geopolitical outlook involving Putin, Trump-era political context, and the war in Ukraine. The market is active with an end date of March 31, 2026, giving traders a defined timeframe for event prediction and odds discovery. Current market probability is 0%, indicating that traders do not currently price in a nuclear test, though sentiment can change quickly if credible reports emerge. As a prediction market, it reflects how participants assess the expected outcome rather than a certainty.","GEOPOLITICS","Trump",[11,13,14,15,16],"putin","Politics","Geopolitics","Ukraine","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Frussia-nuclear-test-by-n0ZGKxWlxHAp.jpg",0,23836.191886999997,17746.76749,16100.142726999999,10700.211064099998,true,false,"2025-11-05T18:16:48.987Z","2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z","2025-11-05T18:07:57.293Z","2026-05-30T10:39:08.880Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Frussia-nuclear-test-by?r=predstack",[31,32,33,34,35,36,37],"russia nuclear test by...?","russia nuclear test by...? prediction","russia nuclear test by...? odds","russia nuclear test by...? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-05T13:30:32.880Z","2026-05-30T10:43:11.664Z",[41,55,68],{"id":42,"title":43,"slug":44,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":45,"probability":49,"createdAt":50,"updatedAt":51,"resolutionDate":52,"description":53,"summary":53,"volume1wk":54,"featured":24},"329654","US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?","us-obtains-iranian-enriched-uranium-by",[11,46,47,15,48,14],"Iran","U.S. x Iran","Iran Ceasefire",0.3,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.415Z","2026-05-30T10:30:55.379Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\n“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.\n\nQualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.\n\nA widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",5096916.237786994,{"id":56,"title":57,"slug":58,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":59,"probability":62,"createdAt":63,"updatedAt":64,"resolutionDate":65,"description":66,"summary":66,"volume1wk":67,"featured":24},"140725","Maduro's Wife Cilia Flores released from custody by...?","cilia-flores-released-from-custody-by",[11,15,14,60,61],"Venezuela","maduro",44,"2026-05-30T10:42:48.693Z","2026-05-30T10:31:50.686Z","2026-01-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Cilia Flores is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Cilia Flores is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nIf Cilia Flores is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nTransporting Cilia Flores to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\". \n\nTemporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",527246.269833,{"id":69,"title":70,"slug":71,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":72,"probability":76,"createdAt":77,"updatedAt":78,"resolutionDate":79,"description":80,"summary":80,"volume1wk":81,"featured":24},"206793"," Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?","iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-june-30",[11,15,14,73,74,75,46,48],"Nuclear","Middle East","World",26.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:51.905Z","2026-05-30T10:33:25.593Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. \n\nAgreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. ",222019.73939699994,1780676606415]