[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":83},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-russia-coup-attempt-in-2026":3},{"event":4,"related":42},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":17,"probability":18,"volume24hr":19,"volume1wk":20,"liquidity":21,"openInterest":22,"trendScore":23,"active":24,"closed":25,"featured":25,"startDate":26,"endDate":27,"createdAtRemote":28,"updatedAtRemote":29,"affiliateUrl":30,"polymarketUrl":30,"searchKeywords":31,"syncedAt":39,"createdAt":40,"marketCount":41},"485543","russia-coup-attempt-in-2026","Russia coup attempt in 2026?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.\n\nClaims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a \"Yes\" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Russia coup attempt in 2026? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether there will be a widely reported coup attempt in Russia before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The forecast focuses on a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. General unrest, protests, or non-state revolutionary activity do not qualify under the market rules. The resolution will depend on a consensus of credible independent reporting, not just government claims about a foiled plot. \n\nThis event matters because a coup attempt would signal major instability in Russia and could affect domestic politics, regional security, and the wider geopolitical outlook, including the war in Ukraine. Current market probability is around 8.5%, suggesting traders see the expected outcome as unlikely but still possible. As a prediction market, the odds reflect evolving market sentiment rather than a certainty, and they may change as new reporting emerges between the May 15, 2026 start date and the end-of-year resolution deadline.","GEOPOLITICS","Russia",[11,13,14,15,16],"Politics","putin","Ukraine","Geopolitics","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Frussia-coup-attempt-in-2026-obgRgeZa6Y2Q.jpg",8.5,869.64,10837.853115999998,41095.6149,13847.891676,11905.2989148,true,false,"2026-05-15T20:20:59.950Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2026-05-14T18:33:35.509Z","2026-05-30T10:36:16.612Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Frussia-coup-attempt-in-2026?r=predstack",[32,33,34,35,36,37,38],"russia coup attempt in 2026?","russia coup attempt in 2026? prediction","russia coup attempt in 2026? odds","russia coup attempt in 2026? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-05T13:44:43.623Z","2026-05-30T10:43:25.278Z",0,[43,57,67],{"id":44,"title":45,"slug":46,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":47,"probability":51,"createdAt":52,"updatedAt":53,"resolutionDate":54,"description":55,"summary":55,"volume1wk":56,"featured":25},"107996","Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? ","ukraine-agrees-not-to-join-nato-by-june-30",[11,13,15,48,16,49,50],"World","Ukraine Peace Deal","NATO",3.25,"2026-05-30T10:42:48.370Z","2026-05-30T10:31:55.853Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).\n\nAn agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement. \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.",628198.77573,{"id":58,"title":59,"slug":60,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":61,"probability":62,"createdAt":63,"updatedAt":64,"resolutionDate":27,"description":65,"summary":65,"volume1wk":66,"featured":25},"79215","Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027?","will-russia-rejoin-the-g7-before-2027",[11,48,13,15,16],4.65,"2026-05-30T10:43:09.217Z","2026-05-30T10:40:13.403Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Russia officially rejoins the Group of Seven (G7) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the title of the group changes (e.g., to \"G8\"), this market will still resolve to \"Yes\" so long as that group remains functionally similar to the G7.\n\nA formal rejoining must be acknowledged by a consensus of G7 member states to qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from G7 member states, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",29415.497418,{"id":68,"title":69,"slug":70,"category":10,"subcategory":71,"tags":72,"probability":41,"createdAt":79,"updatedAt":80,"resolutionDate":27,"description":81,"summary":81,"volume1wk":82,"featured":24},"357807","US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?","us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by","Iran",[71,73,74,75,76,77,78,16,13],"Trump","ceasefire","Iran Ceasefire","Agreement","10-point","U.S. x Iran","2026-05-30T10:42:43.363Z","2026-05-30T10:40:08.539Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",55575856.145219125,1780676597241]