[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":88},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-ruben-rocha-out-as-governor-of-sinaloa-by-may-31":3},{"event":4,"related":41},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":16,"probability":17,"volume24hr":18,"volume1wk":19,"liquidity":20,"openInterest":21,"trendScore":22,"active":23,"closed":24,"featured":24,"startDate":25,"endDate":26,"createdAtRemote":27,"updatedAtRemote":28,"affiliateUrl":29,"polymarketUrl":29,"searchKeywords":30,"syncedAt":38,"createdAt":39,"marketCount":40},"435295","ruben-rocha-out-as-governor-of-sinaloa-by-may-31","Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by...?","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ruben Rocha Moya ceases to be the Governor of Sinaloa for any period of time between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Rocha Moya’s resignation\u002Fremoval before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation\u002Fremoval goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Ruben Rocha Moya and the governments of Mexico and Sinaloa; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n","Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by...? is a political prediction market asking whether Ruben Rocha Moya will cease to serve as governor of Sinaloa at any point between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The forecast resolves to Yes if Rocha Moya resigns, is removed, detained, or otherwise permanently prevented from carrying out the duties of governor within that timeframe; it also resolves to Yes if an official resignation or removal is announced before the deadline, even if it takes effect later. Otherwise, the expected outcome is No. As a politics and extradite-related market focused on Mexico and Sinaloa, it reflects trader attention on regional political stability, legal risk, and potential official action involving a sitting state governor. Current market probability is about 3.45%, indicating a low but nonzero expectation of removal by the deadline. For prediction market participants, the key variables are official statements from Ruben Rocha Moya, the governments of Mexico and Sinaloa, and credible reporting through the end date. The event serves as a live political forecast rather than a certainty, with odds shaped by evolving market sentiment and new developments.","POLITICS","Extradite",[11,13,14,15],"Politics","cartel","Mexico","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fruben-rocha-moya-out-as-governor-of-sinaloa-by-my-31-MLH8oju21-6T.jpg",3.45,418.2578,30871.703405000007,14969.49696,39618.604662,12464.539313500001,true,false,"2026-04-30T19:18:33.589Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","2026-04-30T18:28:47.511Z","2026-05-30T10:31:04.844Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fruben-rocha-out-as-governor-of-sinaloa-by-may-31?r=predstack",[31,32,33,34,35,36,37],"ruben rocha out as governor of sinaloa by...?","ruben rocha out as governor of sinaloa by...? prediction","ruben rocha out as governor of sinaloa by...? odds","ruben rocha out as governor of sinaloa by...? probability","political prediction market","political forecast","political probability","2026-06-05T13:27:14.514Z","2026-05-30T10:43:08.390Z",0,[42,60,73],{"id":43,"title":44,"slug":45,"category":10,"subcategory":13,"tags":46,"probability":54,"createdAt":55,"updatedAt":56,"resolutionDate":57,"description":58,"summary":58,"volume1wk":59,"featured":23},"31875","Republican Presidential Nominee 2028","republican-presidential-nominee-2028",[13,47,48,49,50,51,52,53],"US Election","Elections","World Elections","Global Elections","Earn 4%","Primaries","United States",2.75,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.975Z","2026-05-30T10:39:47.083Z","2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",9249335.794150999,{"id":61,"title":62,"slug":63,"category":10,"subcategory":13,"tags":64,"probability":40,"createdAt":68,"updatedAt":69,"resolutionDate":70,"description":71,"summary":71,"volume1wk":72,"featured":23},"438327","Iran closes its airspace by...?","iran-closes-its-airspace-by",[13,65,66,67],"Geopolitics","U.S. x Iran","Iran","2026-05-30T10:42:44.156Z","2026-05-30T10:38:40.231Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14\u002F) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firanian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14\u002F). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.aa.com.tr\u002Fen\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz\u002F3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.intellinews.com\u002Firan-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997\u002F).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.",6620506.11378,{"id":74,"title":75,"slug":76,"category":10,"subcategory":48,"tags":77,"probability":82,"createdAt":83,"updatedAt":84,"resolutionDate":85,"description":86,"summary":86,"volume1wk":87,"featured":23},"57096","California Governor Election Winner","california-governor-election-2026",[48,47,13,78,79,80,81],"Governor midterms","California Midterm","rewards 100, 4.5, 100","California Governor",0.25,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.509Z","2026-05-30T10:32:16.807Z","2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nIf the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.",4083953.7799110003,1780676617093]