[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":88},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-republican-senate-seats-after-the-2026-midterm-elections-927":3},{"event":4,"related":44},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":19,"probability":20,"volume24hr":21,"volume1wk":22,"liquidity":23,"openInterest":24,"trendScore":25,"active":26,"closed":27,"featured":27,"startDate":28,"endDate":29,"createdAtRemote":30,"updatedAtRemote":31,"affiliateUrl":32,"polymarketUrl":32,"searchKeywords":33,"syncedAt":41,"createdAt":42,"marketCount":43},"106193","republican-senate-seats-after-the-2026-midterm-elections-927","Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?","The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.\n\nIf a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.\n\nA candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.","\"Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?\" is a political prediction market focused on how many seats the Republican Party will hold in the US Senate after the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves based on all Senate elections scheduled for November 2026, including any special elections, with the final count determined once the races are called by Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, or by official certification if needed. The forecast reflects control of Congress and can shift as campaigns develop, candidate affiliations become clearer, and runoff outcomes are decided. The midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026, and the market has been active since December 19, 2025. Current market probability is about 27.5%, indicating traders see this outcome as possible but not the baseline expectation. In prediction market terms, the odds incorporate market sentiment, election forecasts, and resolution rules tied to Senate results across the United States. This event is relevant for Congress, US election watchers, and anyone tracking Republican and Democratic Senate control heading into the 2026 midterms.","POLITICS","Congress",[11,13,14,15,16,17,18],"Politics","Elections","US Election","Trump","Midterms","United States","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwill-republicans-lose-a-seat-in-the-us-senate-for-any-state-trump-won-in-2024-36T8qr8R2Va9.jpg",27.5,1289.2700000000002,53972.861686000004,240509.40079,85219.008834,64938.37366380001,true,false,"2025-12-19T02:06:20.986Z",null,"2025-12-15T22:40:50.640Z","2026-05-30T10:40:18.317Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Frepublican-senate-seats-after-the-2026-midterm-elections-927?r=predstack",[34,35,36,37,38,39,40],"republican senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?","republican senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? prediction","republican senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? odds","republican senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? probability","political prediction market","political forecast","political probability","2026-06-05T13:20:30.546Z","2026-05-30T10:43:02.184Z",0,[45,60,73],{"id":46,"title":47,"slug":48,"category":10,"subcategory":13,"tags":49,"probability":54,"createdAt":55,"updatedAt":56,"resolutionDate":57,"description":58,"summary":58,"volume1wk":59,"featured":26},"31875","Republican Presidential Nominee 2028","republican-presidential-nominee-2028",[13,15,14,50,51,52,53,18],"World Elections","Global Elections","Earn 4%","Primaries",2.75,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.975Z","2026-05-30T10:39:47.083Z","2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",9249335.794150999,{"id":61,"title":62,"slug":63,"category":10,"subcategory":13,"tags":64,"probability":43,"createdAt":68,"updatedAt":69,"resolutionDate":70,"description":71,"summary":71,"volume1wk":72,"featured":26},"438327","Iran closes its airspace by...?","iran-closes-its-airspace-by",[13,65,66,67],"Geopolitics","U.S. x Iran","Iran","2026-05-30T10:42:44.156Z","2026-05-30T10:38:40.231Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14\u002F) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firanian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14\u002F). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.aa.com.tr\u002Fen\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz\u002F3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.intellinews.com\u002Firan-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997\u002F).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.",6620506.11378,{"id":74,"title":75,"slug":76,"category":10,"subcategory":14,"tags":77,"probability":82,"createdAt":83,"updatedAt":84,"resolutionDate":85,"description":86,"summary":86,"volume1wk":87,"featured":26},"57096","California Governor Election Winner","california-governor-election-2026",[14,15,13,78,79,80,81],"Governor midterms","California Midterm","rewards 100, 4.5, 100","California Governor",0.25,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.509Z","2026-05-30T10:32:16.807Z","2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nIf the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.",4083953.7799110003,1780676603337]