[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":85},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-republican-presidential-nominee-2028":3},{"event":4,"related":45},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":20,"probability":21,"volume24hr":22,"volume1wk":23,"liquidity":24,"openInterest":25,"trendScore":26,"active":27,"closed":28,"featured":27,"startDate":29,"endDate":30,"createdAtRemote":31,"updatedAtRemote":32,"affiliateUrl":33,"polymarketUrl":33,"searchKeywords":34,"syncedAt":42,"createdAt":43,"marketCount":44},"31875","republican-presidential-nominee-2028","Republican Presidential Nominee 2028","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.","Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 is a political prediction market tracking who will win and accept the Republican Party’s nomination for U.S. president in 2028. The market resolves to Yes if the named individual becomes the official Republican nominee, based on a consensus of official Republican Party sources; if not, it resolves to No. If the party replaces its nominee before Election Day, that change does not alter the market’s resolution, which makes the event prediction especially focused on the formal nomination outcome rather than later campaign adjustments. This forecast matters because the Republican nominee will shape the early direction of the 2028 U.S. election cycle, including party positioning, primary dynamics, and broader market sentiment around the race. The prediction market is active from July 11, 2025 through November 7, 2028, giving traders a long window to assess odds as the nomination process develops. Current market probability stands at 2.75%, suggesting the market expects this outcome to remain relatively unlikely at present, though probabilities can shift with new political developments, endorsements, debates, and primary results.","POLITICS","Politics",[11,13,14,15,16,17,18,19],"US Election","Elections","World Elections","Global Elections","Earn 4%","Primaries","United States","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Frepublicans+2028.png",2.75,347863.711094,9249335.794150999,42738476.78984,9982564.461528003,11496427.9517603,true,false,"2025-07-11T19:42:53.683Z","2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","2025-07-10T16:58:01.775Z","2026-05-30T10:39:47.083Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Frepublican-presidential-nominee-2028?r=predstack",[35,36,37,38,39,40,41],"republican presidential nominee 2028","republican presidential nominee 2028 prediction","republican presidential nominee 2028 odds","republican presidential nominee 2028 probability","political prediction market","political forecast","political probability","2026-06-05T10:32:27.027Z","2026-05-30T10:42:43.975Z",0,[46,59,72],{"id":47,"title":48,"slug":49,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":50,"probability":44,"createdAt":54,"updatedAt":55,"resolutionDate":56,"description":57,"summary":57,"volume1wk":58,"featured":27},"438327","Iran closes its airspace by...?","iran-closes-its-airspace-by",[11,51,52,53],"Geopolitics","U.S. x Iran","Iran","2026-05-30T10:42:44.156Z","2026-05-30T10:38:40.231Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14\u002F) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firanian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14\u002F). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.aa.com.tr\u002Fen\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz\u002F3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.intellinews.com\u002Firan-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997\u002F).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.",6620506.11378,{"id":60,"title":61,"slug":62,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":63,"probability":44,"createdAt":67,"updatedAt":68,"resolutionDate":69,"description":70,"summary":70,"volume1wk":71,"featured":27},"371649","US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?","us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-329",[11,64,53,65,66,52,51],"Iran Ceasefire","Vance","Trump","2026-05-30T10:42:45.013Z","2026-05-30T10:39:46.810Z","2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. \n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.  \n\nThe meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.",2654417.6848280015,{"id":73,"title":74,"slug":75,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":76,"probability":79,"createdAt":80,"updatedAt":81,"resolutionDate":82,"description":83,"summary":83,"volume1wk":84,"featured":27},"143567","Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?","miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-june-30",[11,51,77,66,78],"Venezuela","Cuba",64,"2026-05-30T10:43:02.131Z","2026-05-30T10:32:02.393Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Cuba’s current leader, Miguel Díaz-Canel, is removed from power for any length of time by the listed date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nFor the purposes of this market, Díaz-Canel will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise ceases to hold (or is publicly reported to be unable to perform the duties of) the office of First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba, which is widely regarded as Cuba’s top political post, within this market’s timeframe. \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",53985.492464999996,1780676569594]