[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":85},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-may-31":3},{"event":4,"related":44},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":19,"probability":20,"volume24hr":21,"volume1wk":22,"liquidity":23,"openInterest":24,"trendScore":25,"active":26,"closed":27,"featured":27,"startDate":28,"endDate":29,"createdAtRemote":30,"updatedAtRemote":31,"affiliateUrl":32,"polymarketUrl":32,"searchKeywords":33,"syncedAt":41,"createdAt":42,"marketCount":43},"424345","pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-may-31","Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation\u002Fremoval before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation\u002Fremoval goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Pete Hegseth will cease to serve as U.S. Secretary of Defense at any point between market creation and May 31, 2026. The market resolves to Yes if a resignation, removal, or official announcement of departure occurs before the end date, even if the exit takes effect later. That makes the event a direct forecast of cabinet stability inside the Trump administration, with implications for U.S. politics and the broader Iran-related geopolitical category. The resolution source is official information from Hegseth and the U.S. government, though credible reporting may also be considered. As of the latest update, the market-implied probability is about 5%, suggesting traders currently see the expected outcome as unlikely. This prediction market is therefore centered on odds, market sentiment, and whether any confirmed change in leadership at the Department of Defense happens before the May 31 deadline.","GEOPOLITICS","Iran",[11,13,14,15,16,17,18],"Geopolitics","Trump","Trump Cabinet","Politics","U.S. x Iran","Hegseth","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fpete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-friday-RWimpJbOlkbf.jpg",0.05,10374.777999999998,75635.39875600007,115766.95976,54303.870981,51031.40057880002,true,false,"2026-04-27T22:03:02.515Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","2026-04-27T15:20:40.504Z","2026-05-30T10:35:04.791Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fpete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-may-31?r=predstack",[34,35,36,37,38,39,40],"pete hegseth out as secretary of defense by may 31?","pete hegseth out as secretary of defense by may 31? prediction","pete hegseth out as secretary of defense by may 31? odds","pete hegseth out as secretary of defense by may 31? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-05T13:17:07.937Z","2026-05-30T10:42:59.075Z",0,[45,59,70],{"id":46,"title":47,"slug":48,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":49,"probability":43,"createdAt":54,"updatedAt":55,"resolutionDate":56,"description":57,"summary":57,"volume1wk":58,"featured":26},"357807","US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?","us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by",[11,14,50,51,52,53,17,13,16],"ceasefire","Iran Ceasefire","Agreement","10-point","2026-05-30T10:42:43.363Z","2026-05-30T10:40:08.539Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",55575856.145219125,{"id":60,"title":61,"slug":62,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":63,"probability":64,"createdAt":65,"updatedAt":66,"resolutionDate":67,"description":68,"summary":68,"volume1wk":69,"featured":26},"504099","Iran ceasefire continues through...?","iran-ceasefire-continues-through",[11,16,51,13],100,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.405Z","2026-05-30T10:36:50.144Z",null,"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET).  Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nThe US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date. \n\nConfirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.\n\nA qualifying \"kinetic military action\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. \n\nKinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify. \n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",25312735.30568604,{"id":71,"title":72,"slug":73,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":74,"probability":80,"createdAt":81,"updatedAt":82,"resolutionDate":29,"description":83,"summary":83,"volume1wk":84,"featured":26},"429426","What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?","what-iranian-demands-will-trump-agree-to-by-may-31",[11,75,76,51,14,77,78,13,16,17,79],"Sanctions","toll","Strait of Hormuz","Enrich","Uranium",11.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.605Z","2026-05-30T10:37:10.758Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nContinued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment.\n\nThe United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if:\n\n- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran.\n- Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.\n\nAgreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.\n\nAny definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.",3880525.7414259994,1780676605448]