[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":85},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-pedro-castillo-pardoned-in-2026":3},{"event":4,"related":40},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":15,"probability":16,"volume24hr":17,"volume1wk":18,"liquidity":19,"openInterest":20,"trendScore":21,"active":22,"closed":23,"featured":23,"startDate":24,"endDate":25,"createdAtRemote":26,"updatedAtRemote":27,"affiliateUrl":28,"polymarketUrl":28,"searchKeywords":29,"syncedAt":37,"createdAt":38,"marketCount":39},"578061","pedro-castillo-pardoned-in-2026","Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.\n\nA qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to \"Yes\" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.\n\nCourt rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. ","Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? is a political prediction market tracking whether Peru’s President will issue a formal pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or another qualifying act of clemency for former president Pedro Castillo by December 31, 2026. The market resolves to Yes only if an official presidential grant of clemency is issued by the Government of Peru and it relieves Castillo from criminal liability, proceedings, conviction, sentence, or penalties tied to a criminal case. Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, and other non-presidential actions do not count. As of the latest update, traders are pricing the event at about 15.5% probability, suggesting a relatively low but still active chance of pardon before the deadline. Market sentiment may shift with developments in Peru’s politics, judicial process, or presidential statements, making this a closely watched political forecast for observers following Peru election-related outcomes and broader questions of executive clemency.","POLITICS","Politics",[11,13,14],"Elections","Peru Election","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fpedro-castillo-pardoned-in-2026--003loZonyqX.png",15.5,6073.59,13614.493685000003,17499.989,2029.705808,10621.140905500002,true,false,"2026-06-10T00:11:59.786Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2026-06-09T23:31:43.425Z","2026-06-16T10:01:06.984Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fpedro-castillo-pardoned-in-2026?r=predstack",[30,31,32,33,34,35,36],"pedro castillo pardoned in 2026?","pedro castillo pardoned in 2026? prediction","pedro castillo pardoned in 2026? odds","pedro castillo pardoned in 2026? probability","political prediction market","political forecast","political probability","2026-06-16T10:30:35.801Z","2026-06-16T10:08:28.780Z",0,[41,54,71],{"id":42,"title":43,"slug":44,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":45,"probability":39,"createdAt":49,"updatedAt":50,"resolutionDate":51,"description":52,"summary":52,"volume1wk":53,"featured":22},"438327","Iran closes its airspace by...?","iran-closes-its-airspace-by",[11,46,47,48],"Geopolitics","U.S. x Iran","Iran","2026-05-30T10:42:44.156Z","2026-05-30T10:38:40.231Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14\u002F) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firanian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14\u002F). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.aa.com.tr\u002Fen\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz\u002F3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.intellinews.com\u002Firan-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997\u002F).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.",6620506.11378,{"id":55,"title":56,"slug":57,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":58,"probability":65,"createdAt":66,"updatedAt":67,"resolutionDate":68,"description":69,"summary":69,"volume1wk":70,"featured":22},"31875","Republican Presidential Nominee 2028","republican-presidential-nominee-2028",[11,59,13,60,61,62,63,64],"US Election","World Elections","Global Elections","Earn 4%","Primaries","United States",2.65,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.975Z","2026-06-16T10:03:36.054Z","2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",4777429.576322999,{"id":72,"title":73,"slug":74,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":75,"probability":39,"createdAt":80,"updatedAt":81,"resolutionDate":82,"description":83,"summary":83,"volume1wk":84,"featured":22},"371649","US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?","us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-329",[11,76,48,77,78,47,46,79],"Iran Ceasefire","Vance","Trump","Peace Deal","2026-05-30T10:42:45.013Z","2026-06-16T10:07:26.988Z","2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. \n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.  \n\nThe meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.",4565895.467737994,1781606231563]