[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":84},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-parties-advancing-from-the-california-governor-primary":3},{"event":4,"related":41},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":16,"probability":17,"volume24hr":18,"volume1wk":19,"liquidity":20,"openInterest":21,"trendScore":22,"active":23,"closed":24,"featured":24,"startDate":25,"endDate":26,"createdAtRemote":27,"updatedAtRemote":28,"affiliateUrl":29,"polymarketUrl":29,"searchKeywords":30,"syncedAt":38,"createdAt":39,"marketCount":40},"117770","parties-advancing-from-the-california-governor-primary","Parties advancing from the California Governor primary?","The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the listed candidates who advance from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with a party.\n\nIn case any combination of parties advances that is not listed here, including all scenarios where an independent candidate advances, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nIf no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.","“Parties advancing from the California Governor primary?” is a political prediction market tracking which party affiliations will emerge from California’s non-partisan gubernatorial primary. The event focuses on the June 2, 2026 primary election for Governor of California, when the top two vote-getters will advance to the general election. Traders are forecasting the expected outcome based on which parties’ candidates make it through, with any unlisted combination, including an independent advancing, resolving to “Other.”\n\nThis market matters because California’s top-two primary system can shape the general election field well before November and influence broader market sentiment around the governor’s race. The current market probability is 24.5%, giving a snapshot of how participants are pricing the leading forecast at this stage. As a political prediction market, it reflects traders’ odds and event prediction views ahead of the primary deadline.\n\nResolution will depend on credible reporting and, if needed, the official results from the California Secretary of State. If the 2026 California gubernatorial primary does not take place by December 31, 2026, the market resolves to “Other.”","POLITICS","Politics",[11,13,14,15],"Elections","Primaries","California Governor","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fcalifornia-governor-election-2026-4b5HcLPNupez.png",24.5,5803.761599,17220.188061,41482.56329,16003.938365000002,16364.449875799999,true,false,"2025-12-22T22:37:52.051Z","2026-06-02T00:00:00.000Z","2025-12-22T18:43:22.245Z","2026-05-30T10:33:36.044Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fparties-advancing-from-the-california-governor-primary?r=predstack",[31,32,33,34,35,36,37],"parties advancing from the california governor primary?","parties advancing from the california governor primary? prediction","parties advancing from the california governor primary? odds","parties advancing from the california governor primary? probability","political prediction market","political forecast","political probability","2026-06-05T13:36:57.765Z","2026-05-30T10:43:17.765Z",0,[42,58,71],{"id":43,"title":44,"slug":45,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":46,"probability":52,"createdAt":53,"updatedAt":54,"resolutionDate":55,"description":56,"summary":56,"volume1wk":57,"featured":23},"31875","Republican Presidential Nominee 2028","republican-presidential-nominee-2028",[11,47,13,48,49,50,14,51],"US Election","World Elections","Global Elections","Earn 4%","United States",2.75,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.975Z","2026-05-30T10:39:47.083Z","2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",9249335.794150999,{"id":59,"title":60,"slug":61,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":62,"probability":40,"createdAt":66,"updatedAt":67,"resolutionDate":68,"description":69,"summary":69,"volume1wk":70,"featured":23},"438327","Iran closes its airspace by...?","iran-closes-its-airspace-by",[11,63,64,65],"Geopolitics","U.S. x Iran","Iran","2026-05-30T10:42:44.156Z","2026-05-30T10:38:40.231Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14\u002F) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firanian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14\u002F). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.aa.com.tr\u002Fen\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz\u002F3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.intellinews.com\u002Firan-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997\u002F).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.",6620506.11378,{"id":72,"title":73,"slug":74,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":75,"probability":40,"createdAt":79,"updatedAt":80,"resolutionDate":81,"description":82,"summary":82,"volume1wk":83,"featured":23},"371649","US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?","us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-329",[11,76,65,77,78,64,63],"Iran Ceasefire","Vance","Trump","2026-05-30T10:42:45.013Z","2026-05-30T10:39:46.810Z","2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. \n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.  \n\nThe meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.",2654417.6848280015,1780676603281]