[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":82},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-nothing-ever-happens-2026":3},{"event":4,"related":41},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":16,"probability":17,"volume24hr":18,"volume1wk":19,"liquidity":20,"openInterest":21,"trendScore":22,"active":23,"closed":24,"featured":24,"startDate":25,"endDate":26,"createdAtRemote":27,"updatedAtRemote":28,"affiliateUrl":29,"polymarketUrl":29,"searchKeywords":30,"syncedAt":38,"createdAt":39,"marketCount":40},"131764","nothing-ever-happens-2026","Nothing Ever Happens: 2026","This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:\n\n- Trump out as President\n- China invades Taiwan\n- Xi Jinping out\n- U.S. invades Iran\n- Iranian regime falls\n- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’\n- Jeffrey Epstein alive\n- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate\n- Russia invades a NATO country\n- Trump acquires Greenland\n- 9.0 or above earthquake\n- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)\n- Major meteor strike (250kt+)\n\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.\n\nThe full rules for this market can be found here: \nhttps:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002FNEH+2026.pdf","Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether a major global disruption will occur before December 31, 2026. The event resolves to “No” if any listed trigger happens between market creation and the deadline, including Trump leaving office, China invading Taiwan, Xi Jinping being out, a U.S. invasion of Iran, regime collapse in Iran, Russia invading a NATO country, Trump acquiring Greenland, or extreme events such as a 9.0+ earthquake, a VEI 6 or larger volcanic eruption, or a major meteor strike. It also includes several other specific tail-risk outcomes, such as Bitcoin reaching 1 million or falling to 10,000, Jeffrey Epstein being alive, or a Republican trifecta with a Senate supermajority. Otherwise, the market resolves to “Yes.” As of the latest data, traders assign about a 69.5% probability to the “Yes” outcome, suggesting market sentiment leans toward no qualifying event occurring by year-end. This makes it a broad event prediction on geopolitical stability, tail risks, and high-impact world events.","GEOPOLITICS","Geopolitics",[11,13,14,15],"Parlays","Politics","World","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fnothing-ever-happens-july-lwg0Ik2C_PNx.png",69.5,383.384384,18321.310698000005,41079.3664,107735.797516,13903.958681400001,true,false,"2026-01-06T22:49:59.524Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2025-12-29T22:24:48.832Z","2026-05-30T10:40:22.390Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fnothing-ever-happens-2026?r=predstack",[31,32,33,34,35,36,37],"nothing ever happens: 2026","nothing ever happens: 2026 prediction","nothing ever happens: 2026 odds","nothing ever happens: 2026 probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-05T13:35:28.686Z","2026-05-30T10:43:16.303Z",0,[42,57,71],{"id":43,"title":44,"slug":45,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":46,"probability":40,"createdAt":53,"updatedAt":54,"resolutionDate":26,"description":55,"summary":55,"volume1wk":56,"featured":23},"310530","Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?","iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpile-by",[11,47,48,49,14,50,51,52],"Trump","Middle East","Iran Ceasefire","U.S. x Iran","Iran","Nuclear","2026-05-30T10:42:44.555Z","2026-05-30T10:32:05.315Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.\n\nTo qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.\n\nAgreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",4017181.6218990027,{"id":58,"title":59,"slug":60,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":61,"probability":40,"createdAt":66,"updatedAt":67,"resolutionDate":68,"description":69,"summary":69,"volume1wk":70,"featured":24},"386788","Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?","israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by",[11,62,49,63,51,64,65],"Lebanon","Israel","Israel x Iran","Hezbollah","2026-05-30T10:42:45.304Z","2026-05-30T10:36:14.427Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n",2228964.1721680006,{"id":72,"title":73,"slug":74,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":75,"probability":77,"createdAt":78,"updatedAt":79,"resolutionDate":26,"description":80,"summary":80,"volume1wk":81,"featured":24},"73130","Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?","will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027",[11,14,48,63,51,47,15,76],"Military Strikes",18.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.702Z","2026-05-30T10:32:16.867Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.",1710369.6938979982,1780676612274]