[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":87},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139":3},{"event":4,"related":41},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":16,"probability":17,"volume24hr":18,"volume1wk":19,"liquidity":20,"openInterest":21,"trendScore":22,"active":23,"closed":24,"featured":24,"startDate":25,"endDate":26,"createdAtRemote":27,"updatedAtRemote":28,"affiliateUrl":29,"polymarketUrl":29,"searchKeywords":30,"syncedAt":38,"createdAt":39,"marketCount":40},"60182","nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139","Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026","This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.\n\nIf multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy,  Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.\n\nIf no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.","Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 is a politics prediction market forecasting who will receive the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. The market resolves to the official winner, with special rules for joint recipients and several prioritized individuals, including Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, and Elon Musk. If no official announcement has been made by March 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to Other. This event matters because the Nobel Peace Prize is one of the most closely watched global awards, often reflecting market sentiment around diplomacy, conflict resolution, and international influence. Traders are pricing in a relatively low expected outcome for any single candidate, with current market probability at 8.5%. As a prediction market, it captures shifting odds and event prediction interest across politics, awards, geopolitics, and world affairs. The market opens on October 16, 2025 and is scheduled to end on October 10, 2026, ahead of the official Nobel announcement cycle.","POLITICS","Awards",[11,13,14,15],"Politics","Geopolitics","World","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fnobel-peace-prize-winner-2025-386lTPX7gsMl.jpg",8.5,77296.79092700001,787443.2068170002,1578507.19439,1098086.2847009997,590582.7963866,true,false,"2025-10-16T22:33:46.896Z","2026-10-10T00:00:00.000Z","2025-10-15T21:00:26.997Z","2026-05-30T10:35:01.766Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fnobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139?r=predstack",[31,32,33,34,35,36,37],"nobel peace prize winner 2026","nobel peace prize winner 2026 prediction","nobel peace prize winner 2026 odds","nobel peace prize winner 2026 probability","political prediction market","political forecast","political probability","2026-06-05T10:36:45.095Z","2026-05-30T10:42:47.726Z",0,[42,60,72],{"id":43,"title":44,"slug":45,"category":10,"subcategory":13,"tags":46,"probability":54,"createdAt":55,"updatedAt":56,"resolutionDate":57,"description":58,"summary":58,"volume1wk":59,"featured":23},"31875","Republican Presidential Nominee 2028","republican-presidential-nominee-2028",[13,47,48,49,50,51,52,53],"US Election","Elections","World Elections","Global Elections","Earn 4%","Primaries","United States",2.75,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.975Z","2026-05-30T10:39:47.083Z","2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",9249335.794150999,{"id":61,"title":62,"slug":63,"category":10,"subcategory":13,"tags":64,"probability":40,"createdAt":67,"updatedAt":68,"resolutionDate":69,"description":70,"summary":70,"volume1wk":71,"featured":23},"438327","Iran closes its airspace by...?","iran-closes-its-airspace-by",[13,14,65,66],"U.S. x Iran","Iran","2026-05-30T10:42:44.156Z","2026-05-30T10:38:40.231Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14\u002F) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firanian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14\u002F). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.aa.com.tr\u002Fen\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz\u002F3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.intellinews.com\u002Firan-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997\u002F).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.",6620506.11378,{"id":73,"title":74,"slug":75,"category":10,"subcategory":48,"tags":76,"probability":81,"createdAt":82,"updatedAt":83,"resolutionDate":84,"description":85,"summary":85,"volume1wk":86,"featured":23},"57096","California Governor Election Winner","california-governor-election-2026",[48,47,13,77,78,79,80],"Governor midterms","California Midterm","rewards 100, 4.5, 100","California Governor",0.25,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.509Z","2026-05-30T10:32:16.807Z","2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nIf the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.",4083953.7799110003,1780676616670]