[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":88},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-nicols-maduro-released-from-custody-by":3},{"event":4,"related":42},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":17,"probability":18,"volume24hr":19,"volume1wk":20,"liquidity":21,"openInterest":22,"trendScore":23,"active":24,"closed":25,"featured":25,"startDate":26,"endDate":27,"createdAtRemote":28,"updatedAtRemote":29,"affiliateUrl":30,"polymarketUrl":30,"searchKeywords":31,"syncedAt":39,"createdAt":40,"marketCount":41},"140724","nicols-maduro-released-from-custody-by","Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nIf Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nTransporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\". \n\nTemporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...? is a political prediction market tracking whether Nicolás Maduro will be released from custody by the listed deadline of 11:59 PM ET on January 31, 2026. The event asks traders to forecast a specific legal and geopolitical outcome: whether Maduro leaves state custody, including release on house arrest, parole, bond, or another condition that no longer keeps him in correctional custody. A transfer to another prison, court, or hospital within the custody system does not count as a release, and temporary outings for testimony also would not qualify. This makes the market dependent on official government or corrections sources, though credible reporting may also be used in resolution. Current market probability is about 12.5%, indicating low but non-zero expectations that the outcome will occur. The market sits at the intersection of politics, Venezuela, geopolitics, and broader event prediction activity, with odds shaped by evolving market sentiment and any new developments involving Maduro’s detention status.","POLITICS","maduro",[11,13,14,15,16],"Politics","Venezuela","Geopolitics","Trump","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fmaduro-in-us-custody-by-january-31-ljXbIe3q5Y2o.jpg",12.5,10.042306,1505952.477360002,22147.0462,83598.250935,456220.1736010006,true,false,"2026-01-03T13:47:18.913Z","2026-01-31T00:00:00.000Z","2026-01-03T12:38:06.483Z","2026-05-30T10:31:14.458Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fnicols-maduro-released-from-custody-by?r=predstack",[32,33,34,35,36,37,38],"nicolás maduro released from custody by...?","nicolás maduro released from custody by...? prediction","nicolás maduro released from custody by...? odds","nicolás maduro released from custody by...? probability","political prediction market","political forecast","political probability","2026-06-05T10:34:52.647Z","2026-05-30T10:42:46.095Z",0,[43,61,73],{"id":44,"title":45,"slug":46,"category":10,"subcategory":13,"tags":47,"probability":55,"createdAt":56,"updatedAt":57,"resolutionDate":58,"description":59,"summary":59,"volume1wk":60,"featured":24},"31875","Republican Presidential Nominee 2028","republican-presidential-nominee-2028",[13,48,49,50,51,52,53,54],"US Election","Elections","World Elections","Global Elections","Earn 4%","Primaries","United States",2.75,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.975Z","2026-05-30T10:39:47.083Z","2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",9249335.794150999,{"id":62,"title":63,"slug":64,"category":10,"subcategory":13,"tags":65,"probability":41,"createdAt":68,"updatedAt":69,"resolutionDate":70,"description":71,"summary":71,"volume1wk":72,"featured":24},"438327","Iran closes its airspace by...?","iran-closes-its-airspace-by",[13,15,66,67],"U.S. x Iran","Iran","2026-05-30T10:42:44.156Z","2026-05-30T10:38:40.231Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14\u002F) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firanian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14\u002F). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.aa.com.tr\u002Fen\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz\u002F3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.intellinews.com\u002Firan-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997\u002F).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.",6620506.11378,{"id":74,"title":75,"slug":76,"category":10,"subcategory":49,"tags":77,"probability":82,"createdAt":83,"updatedAt":84,"resolutionDate":85,"description":86,"summary":86,"volume1wk":87,"featured":24},"57096","California Governor Election Winner","california-governor-election-2026",[49,48,13,78,79,80,81],"Governor midterms","California Midterm","rewards 100, 4.5, 100","California Governor",0.25,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.509Z","2026-05-30T10:32:16.807Z","2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nIf the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.",4083953.7799110003,1780676611862]