[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":86},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-next-prime-minister-of-ethiopia":3},{"event":4,"related":42},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":17,"probability":18,"volume24hr":19,"volume1wk":20,"liquidity":21,"openInterest":22,"trendScore":23,"active":24,"closed":25,"featured":25,"startDate":26,"endDate":27,"createdAtRemote":28,"updatedAtRemote":29,"affiliateUrl":30,"polymarketUrl":30,"searchKeywords":31,"syncedAt":39,"createdAt":40,"marketCount":41},"411239","next-prime-minister-of-ethiopia","Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?","General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections.\n\nTo count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nIf no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n","Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? is a political prediction market centered on who will officially assume the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia after the country’s June 1, 2026 general elections. The forecast is not about an interim or caretaker leader; it resolves only when an individual is formally appointed and sworn in as prime minister. If no qualifying prime minister takes office by December 31, 2028 at 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis event matters because Ethiopia’s election outcome and subsequent leadership transition are closely watched across domestic politics and global elections markets. Traders are using this prediction market to gauge the expected outcome of the post-election succession, with market sentiment currently implying a 65% probability for the leading outcome. The official resolution source is the Government of Ethiopia, though credible reporting may also be used if needed.\n\nWith the market active from April 27, 2026 through the June 1 election date, this is a straightforward event prediction focused on who ultimately takes executive office in Ethiopia.","POLITICS","Ethiopia",[11,13,14,15,16],"Elections","Main Election","Global Elections","Politics","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fethiopia-parliamentary-election-winner-ofkn9mmT2_id.png",0.65,6606769.275917,16394723.007227,113200.71354,10666.693406,8244441.682834599,true,false,"2026-04-27T21:59:07.041Z","2026-06-01T00:00:00.000Z","2026-04-23T22:32:48.837Z","2026-06-16T10:06:02.820Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fnext-prime-minister-of-ethiopia?r=predstack",[32,33,34,35,36,37,38],"next prime minister of ethiopia?","next prime minister of ethiopia? prediction","next prime minister of ethiopia? odds","next prime minister of ethiopia? probability","political prediction market","political forecast","political probability","2026-06-16T10:09:11.933Z","2026-06-16T10:07:51.236Z",0,[43,56,72],{"id":44,"title":45,"slug":46,"category":10,"subcategory":16,"tags":47,"probability":41,"createdAt":51,"updatedAt":52,"resolutionDate":53,"description":54,"summary":54,"volume1wk":55,"featured":24},"438327","Iran closes its airspace by...?","iran-closes-its-airspace-by",[16,48,49,50],"Geopolitics","U.S. x Iran","Iran","2026-05-30T10:42:44.156Z","2026-05-30T10:38:40.231Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14\u002F) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firanian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14\u002F). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.aa.com.tr\u002Fen\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz\u002F3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.intellinews.com\u002Firan-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997\u002F).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.",6620506.11378,{"id":57,"title":58,"slug":59,"category":10,"subcategory":16,"tags":60,"probability":66,"createdAt":67,"updatedAt":68,"resolutionDate":69,"description":70,"summary":70,"volume1wk":71,"featured":24},"31875","Republican Presidential Nominee 2028","republican-presidential-nominee-2028",[16,61,13,62,15,63,64,65],"US Election","World Elections","Earn 4%","Primaries","United States",2.65,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.975Z","2026-06-16T10:03:36.054Z","2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",4777429.576322999,{"id":73,"title":74,"slug":75,"category":10,"subcategory":16,"tags":76,"probability":41,"createdAt":81,"updatedAt":82,"resolutionDate":83,"description":84,"summary":84,"volume1wk":85,"featured":24},"371649","US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?","us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-329",[16,77,50,78,79,49,48,80],"Iran Ceasefire","Vance","Trump","Peace Deal","2026-05-30T10:42:45.013Z","2026-06-16T10:07:26.988Z","2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. \n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.  \n\nThe meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.",4565895.467737994,1781606260379]