[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":85},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-no-orban":3},{"event":4,"related":41},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":16,"probability":17,"volume24hr":18,"volume1wk":19,"liquidity":20,"openInterest":21,"trendScore":22,"active":23,"closed":24,"featured":24,"startDate":25,"endDate":26,"createdAtRemote":27,"updatedAtRemote":28,"affiliateUrl":29,"polymarketUrl":29,"searchKeywords":30,"syncedAt":38,"createdAt":39,"marketCount":40},"424982","next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-no-orban","Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)","This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.\n\nAn announcement of a resignation\u002Fremoval, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.\n\nAdditionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.\n\nIf this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban) is a political prediction market tracking which listed leader, if any, will permanently leave office before the end of 2026. The market is resolved by the first individual who ceases to occupy their official post on a permanent basis; resignations, announced departures, election defeats, temporary suspensions, caretaker arrangements, and other provisional transfers of power do not count. If none of the listed leaders is permanently removed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the event will resolve to “None before 2027.”\n\nThis forecast matters because it reflects broader market sentiment on political stability and leadership continuity across geopolitics. Traders are effectively pricing the odds that an incumbent will be out of power before 2027, with the current market probability around 55%. The event begins on April 27, 2026 and runs through the year-end deadline, making timing central to the expected outcome. Resolution will rely on a consensus of credible reporting, and no additional individuals will be added after creation. The market includes political signals relevant to leaders such as Starmer and other officeholders tracked under the politics category.","POLITICS","Politics",[11,13,14,15],"Geopolitics","Starmer","Rewards 20, 4.5, 50","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fleader-6d967049a5.png",0.55,13786.30938,78611.78747899999,350961.97713,43106.876298999996,100669.0863597,true,false,"2026-04-27T22:14:23.671Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2026-04-27T19:12:55.848Z","2026-05-30T10:38:07.644Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fnext-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-no-orban?r=predstack",[31,32,33,34,35,36,37],"next leader out of power before 2027? (no orban)","next leader out of power before 2027? (no orban) prediction","next leader out of power before 2027? (no orban) odds","next leader out of power before 2027? (no orban) probability","political prediction market","political forecast","political probability","2026-06-05T13:16:33.352Z","2026-05-30T10:42:58.505Z",0,[42,60,72],{"id":43,"title":44,"slug":45,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":46,"probability":54,"createdAt":55,"updatedAt":56,"resolutionDate":57,"description":58,"summary":58,"volume1wk":59,"featured":23},"31875","Republican Presidential Nominee 2028","republican-presidential-nominee-2028",[11,47,48,49,50,51,52,53],"US Election","Elections","World Elections","Global Elections","Earn 4%","Primaries","United States",2.75,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.975Z","2026-05-30T10:39:47.083Z","2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",9249335.794150999,{"id":61,"title":62,"slug":63,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":64,"probability":40,"createdAt":67,"updatedAt":68,"resolutionDate":69,"description":70,"summary":70,"volume1wk":71,"featured":23},"438327","Iran closes its airspace by...?","iran-closes-its-airspace-by",[11,13,65,66],"U.S. x Iran","Iran","2026-05-30T10:42:44.156Z","2026-05-30T10:38:40.231Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14\u002F) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firanian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14\u002F). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.aa.com.tr\u002Fen\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz\u002F3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.intellinews.com\u002Firan-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997\u002F).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.",6620506.11378,{"id":73,"title":74,"slug":75,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":76,"probability":40,"createdAt":80,"updatedAt":81,"resolutionDate":82,"description":83,"summary":83,"volume1wk":84,"featured":23},"371649","US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?","us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-329",[11,77,66,78,79,65,13],"Iran Ceasefire","Vance","Trump","2026-05-30T10:42:45.013Z","2026-05-30T10:39:46.810Z","2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. \n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.  \n\nThe meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.",2654417.6848280015,1780676666072]