[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":81},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-new-gemini-reasoning-flagship-released-by":3},{"event":4,"related":41},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":16,"probability":17,"volume24hr":18,"volume1wk":19,"liquidity":20,"openInterest":21,"trendScore":22,"active":23,"closed":24,"featured":24,"startDate":25,"endDate":26,"createdAtRemote":27,"updatedAtRemote":28,"affiliateUrl":29,"polymarketUrl":29,"searchKeywords":30,"syncedAt":38,"createdAt":39,"marketCount":40},"428664","new-gemini-reasoning-flagship-released-by","New Gemini reasoning flagship released by...?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google releases or makes available a new Gemini reasoning flagship model to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nQualifying models must be positioned by Google as a next-generation, reasoning-focused flagship within the Gemini model line. For example, qualifying models include newly released or newly made generally available (GA) reasoning-focused flagship models (e.g, Gemini 3.1 GA), or any new Pro, Deep Think, or Ultra variants (e.g., Gemini 3.2 Pro, Gemini 3.4 Deep Think, Gemini 4 Ultra).\n\nModels explicitly positioned for speed, efficiency, or low-cost inference that compromise reasoning capability will NOT qualify. This includes, but is not limited to, variants such as Gemini Flash, Flash-lite, Nano, or similar lightweight or latency-optimized models, even if released under a new Gemini version number.\n\nSpecialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under a qualifying Gemini version number. \n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","New Gemini reasoning flagship released by...? is a technology prediction market tracking whether Google will release or make generally available a new Gemini reasoning-focused flagship model by the specified date. The market is centered on a Yes\u002FNo forecast: traders are betting on whether Google launches a next-generation Gemini model positioned as a flagship for reasoning, such as a new Pro, Deep Think, or Ultra variant. Lightweight releases like Gemini Flash, Flash-lite, or Nano do not qualify, and neither do non-text systems such as Veo, Imagen, Lyria, or Gemini Robotics.\n\nThe event matters because it offers a real-time view of market sentiment around Google’s AI roadmap and the pace of Gemini upgrades. A qualifying release must be publicly accessible, including through open beta or a public waitlist, and the primary resolution source is official Google information, supported by credible reporting. The market currently assigns about 40% probability to a qualifying release. The forecast runs from April 30, 2026, through June 30, 2026, giving traders a defined window to assess whether Google meets the event’s strict product and availability criteria.","TECH","AI",[11,13,14,15],"Tech","google","Gemini","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fgemini-3pt0-released-by-Jgab86ADS9yM.png",0.4,9381.715734,22217.765838,26113.40525,35497.123634999996,16578.8686684,true,false,"2026-04-30T00:14:10.562Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","2026-04-28T20:13:31.928Z","2026-05-30T10:32:21.962Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fnew-gemini-reasoning-flagship-released-by?r=predstack",[31,32,33,34,35,36,37],"new gemini reasoning flagship released by...?","new gemini reasoning flagship released by...? prediction","new gemini reasoning flagship released by...? odds","new gemini reasoning flagship released by...? probability","technology prediction market","tech forecast","technology probability","2026-06-05T13:31:46.915Z","2026-05-30T10:43:12.768Z",0,[42,57,68],{"id":43,"title":44,"slug":45,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":46,"probability":52,"createdAt":53,"updatedAt":54,"resolutionDate":26,"description":55,"summary":55,"volume1wk":56,"featured":23},"57711","Largest Company end of June?","largest-company-end-of-june-712",[11,13,47,48,49,50,51],"Big Tech","Economy","DeepSeek","Business","Finance",89,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.353Z","2026-05-30T10:36:33.619Z","This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30, 2026, as of market close.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",2205699.1277590003,{"id":58,"title":59,"slug":60,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":61,"probability":40,"createdAt":63,"updatedAt":64,"resolutionDate":65,"description":66,"summary":66,"volume1wk":67,"featured":24},"36308","Claude 5 released by…?","claude-5-released-by",[11,13,62],"Claude 5","2026-05-30T10:42:48.289Z","2026-05-30T10:36:27.841Z","2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.\n\nClaude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",635833.2265890003,{"id":69,"title":70,"slug":71,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":72,"probability":75,"createdAt":76,"updatedAt":77,"resolutionDate":78,"description":79,"summary":79,"volume1wk":80,"featured":24},"414059","Which company has the best Math AI model end of May?","which-company-has-the-best-math-ai-model-end-of-may",[11,73,13,74],"Rewards 20, 4.5, 50","Math",7,"2026-05-30T10:42:52.121Z","2026-05-30T10:32:28.191Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Math\" is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Math\" Leaderboard tab at https:\u002F\u002Farena.ai\u002Fleaderboard\u002Ftext\u002Fmath-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",218432.781042,1780676629794]