[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":83},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-nato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025":3},{"event":4,"related":43},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":19,"probability":20,"volume24hr":21,"volume1wk":22,"liquidity":23,"openInterest":24,"trendScore":25,"active":26,"closed":27,"featured":27,"startDate":28,"endDate":29,"createdAtRemote":30,"updatedAtRemote":31,"affiliateUrl":32,"polymarketUrl":32,"searchKeywords":33,"syncedAt":41,"createdAt":42,"marketCount":20},"48930","nato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025","NATO x Russia military clash by...?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between September 23 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military encounter\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify.\n\nInterception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify.\n\nIntentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage.\n\nMilitary contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify).\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","“NATO x Russia military clash by...?” is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether there will be a direct military encounter between the armed forces of a NATO country and Russia during the market window, which begins September 23, 2025 and runs through December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The forecasted outcome is straightforward: the market resolves to Yes if credible reporting confirms a qualifying military confrontation, and No if no such incident occurs. The rules are specific about what counts, requiring direct use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, or exchange of gunfire between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent incidents, cyberattacks, warning shots, and certain collisions do not qualify, while some drone shootdowns may. Tags including NATO, Russia, Ukraine, Trump, and Trump Presidency reflect the broader geopolitical context behind this event prediction. Market sentiment currently shows a 0% probability, indicating traders are assigning no chance to a qualifying clash at the moment, though odds can change as events develop. As a prediction market, this listing tracks shifting expectations around a major NATO-Russia security risk.","GEOPOLITICS","Trump Presidency",[11,13,14,15,16,17,18],"Trump","Russia","Geopolitics","World","Ukraine","NATO","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fnato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025-DteCDkmbVLj_.jpg",0,16881.488181000004,235726.08940199998,85480.89077,459206.073955,96254.74906509998,true,false,"2025-09-23T20:22:28.888Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2025-09-23T20:01:44.379Z","2026-05-30T10:31:33.487Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fnato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025?r=predstack",[34,35,36,37,38,39,40],"nato x russia military clash by...?","nato x russia military clash by...? prediction","nato x russia military clash by...? odds","nato x russia military clash by...? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-05T13:09:10.418Z","2026-05-30T10:42:51.581Z",[44,56,72],{"id":45,"title":46,"slug":47,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":48,"probability":20,"createdAt":51,"updatedAt":52,"resolutionDate":53,"description":54,"summary":54,"volume1wk":55,"featured":27},"25410","US x Russia military clash by...?","us-x-russia-military-clash-by",[11,13,15,16,49,50],"Military Actions","US-Iran","2026-05-30T10:43:03.998Z","2026-05-30T10:38:24.700Z","2026-12-31T12:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Russia between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military encounter\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between U.S. and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify. \n\nIntentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage. \n\nMilitary contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify).\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n",46242.812409000006,{"id":57,"title":58,"slug":59,"category":10,"subcategory":60,"tags":61,"probability":20,"createdAt":68,"updatedAt":69,"resolutionDate":29,"description":70,"summary":70,"volume1wk":71,"featured":26},"357807","US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?","us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by","Iran",[60,13,62,63,64,65,66,15,67],"ceasefire","Iran Ceasefire","Agreement","10-point","U.S. x Iran","Politics","2026-05-30T10:42:43.363Z","2026-05-30T10:40:08.539Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",55575856.145219125,{"id":73,"title":74,"slug":75,"category":10,"subcategory":60,"tags":76,"probability":77,"createdAt":78,"updatedAt":79,"resolutionDate":80,"description":81,"summary":81,"volume1wk":82,"featured":26},"504099","Iran ceasefire continues through...?","iran-ceasefire-continues-through",[60,67,63,15],100,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.405Z","2026-05-30T10:36:50.144Z",null,"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET).  Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nThe US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date. \n\nConfirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.\n\nA qualifying \"kinetic military action\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. \n\nKinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify. \n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",25312735.30568604,1780676644545]