[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":88},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-makerfield-by-election-margin-of-victory":3},{"event":4,"related":46},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":21,"probability":22,"volume24hr":23,"volume1wk":24,"liquidity":25,"openInterest":26,"trendScore":27,"active":28,"closed":29,"featured":29,"startDate":30,"endDate":31,"createdAtRemote":32,"updatedAtRemote":33,"affiliateUrl":34,"polymarketUrl":34,"searchKeywords":35,"syncedAt":43,"createdAt":44,"marketCount":45},"499657","makerfield-by-election-margin-of-victory","Makerfield by-election: Margin of Victory","A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held in June 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.wigan.gov.uk\u002F).\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.","Makerfield by-election: Margin of Victory is a prediction market focused on the expected winning margin in the United Kingdom parliamentary by-election for the Makerfield constituency. The by-election is expected in June 2026 after the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons, making this a closely watched political event in UK elections and broader election forecasting. Traders are not predicting the winner here, but the difference between the first-place and second-place candidates, measured as the absolute gap in valid vote share.\n\nThis market matters because margin-of-victory outcomes can signal how competitive the contest is and how market sentiment is pricing local political conditions. The event will resolve using the official vote count once the result is made official by Wigan Council or credible reporting consistent with official results. If results are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, the market resolves to Other.\n\nCurrent market probability is around 33%, giving a sense of the present odds that the listed bracket will occur, though the forecast can change as the campaign develops and election day approaches.","ELECTIONS","Politics",[11,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20],"Global Elections","Main Election","Elections","UK","United Kingdome","Starmer","UK Elections","Makerfield","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fmakerfield-by-election-winner-1ceiGHP2i4dn.jpg",33,3144.647196,14627.306077,71087.46986,5178.037761,20178.0093931,true,false,"2026-05-18T22:58:52.723Z",null,"2026-05-18T21:54:20.713Z","2026-06-16T10:03:01.689Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fmakerfield-by-election-margin-of-victory?r=predstack",[36,37,38,39,40,41,42],"makerfield by-election: margin of victory","makerfield by-election: margin of victory prediction","makerfield by-election: margin of victory odds","makerfield by-election: margin of victory probability","election prediction market","election forecast","election odds","2026-06-16T10:29:53.088Z","2026-06-16T10:08:27.836Z",0,[47,61,76],{"id":48,"title":49,"slug":50,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":51,"probability":55,"createdAt":56,"updatedAt":57,"resolutionDate":58,"description":59,"summary":59,"volume1wk":60,"featured":28},"106520","Peru Presidential Election Winner","peru-presidential-election-winner",[11,13,52,15,53,54,14],"World Elections","Peru","Peru Election",0.15,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.740Z","2026-06-16T10:02:41.642Z","2026-04-12T00:00:00.000Z","General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. \n\nThis market includes any potential second round. \n\nIf the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.onpe.gob.pe\u002Felecciones\u002F) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https:\u002F\u002Fportal.jne.gob.pe\u002Fportal\u002F) ",16525619.599477056,{"id":62,"title":63,"slug":64,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":65,"probability":70,"createdAt":71,"updatedAt":72,"resolutionDate":73,"description":74,"summary":74,"volume1wk":75,"featured":28},"34584","Colombia Presidential Election","colombia-presidential-election",[11,13,15,66,52,67,68,14,69],"World","Colombia Election","Colombia","Macro Election 1",0.05,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.106Z","2026-06-16T10:05:17.604Z","2026-06-21T14:00:00.000Z","Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. \n\nThis market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https:\u002F\u002Fregistraduria.gov.co).",1044563.6338270012,{"id":77,"title":78,"slug":79,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":80,"probability":82,"createdAt":83,"updatedAt":84,"resolutionDate":85,"description":86,"summary":86,"volume1wk":87,"featured":29},"485538","Makerfield by-election Winner","makerfield-by-election-winner",[11,81,13,19,16,14,15,18,20],"Main Elections",77.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:47.119Z","2026-06-16T10:06:49.555Z","2026-06-18T00:00:00.000Z","A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held in 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.\n\nIf the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.wigan.gov.uk\u002F).",3351349.079954987,1781606235713]