[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":84},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-major-volcano-eruption-vei-6-in-2026":3},{"event":4,"related":45},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":20,"probability":21,"volume24hr":22,"volume1wk":23,"liquidity":24,"openInterest":25,"trendScore":26,"active":27,"closed":28,"featured":28,"startDate":29,"endDate":30,"createdAtRemote":31,"updatedAtRemote":32,"affiliateUrl":33,"polymarketUrl":33,"searchKeywords":34,"syncedAt":42,"createdAt":43,"marketCount":44},"131228","major-volcano-eruption-vei-6-in-2026","Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https:\u002F\u002Fvolcano.si.edu\u002F), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled \"Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N\u002FT)\" (https:\u002F\u002Fvolcano.si.edu\u002Ffaq\u002Findex.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.\n\nIf this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.\n\nNote: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https:\u002F\u002Fvolcano.si.edu\u002Ffaq\u002Findex.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.","Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? is a weather and science prediction market asking whether a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index of 6 or higher will occur before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The event focuses on one of the most extreme types of volcanic activity, where the forecasted outcome is simply whether at least one qualifying eruption happens during the market’s timeframe. Resolution is tied primarily to the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program, with the final check expected by March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. If that source is incomplete or unavailable, the market may rely on consensus scientific sources such as the USGS or volcanic observatories. Current market probability is about 11%, suggesting traders assign relatively low odds to a VEI 6-plus eruption in 2026. As a natural disaster and climate-related event prediction, it attracts attention from traders tracking volcanic risk, scientific reporting, and broader market sentiment around rare geophysical events.","WEATHER","Science",[11,13,14,15,16,17,18,19],"earthquake","Natural Disaster","clima","Weather","climate","Climate & Science","Natural Disasters","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fmajor-volcano-eruption-vei-6-in-2026-LJHtO8e65z5C.jpg",11,122.1,12696.789500000003,5294.863,21708.177537,4929.059450000001,true,false,"2025-12-29T23:27:09.454Z","2027-03-31T00:00:00.000Z","2025-12-29T15:52:08.756Z","2026-05-30T10:31:13.896Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fmajor-volcano-eruption-vei-6-in-2026?r=predstack",[35,36,37,38,39,40,41],"major volcano eruption (vei ≥6) in 2026?","major volcano eruption (vei ≥6) in 2026? prediction","major volcano eruption (vei ≥6) in 2026? odds","major volcano eruption (vei ≥6) in 2026? probability","weather prediction market","weather forecast","weather probability","2026-06-05T13:41:38.163Z","2026-05-30T10:43:22.240Z",0,[46,59,72],{"id":47,"title":48,"slug":49,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":50,"probability":53,"createdAt":54,"updatedAt":55,"resolutionDate":56,"description":57,"summary":57,"volume1wk":58,"featured":28},"414162","Measles cases in U.S. by May 31?","measles-cases-in-us-by-may-31",[11,51,52,16],"Measles","Pandemics",0.65,"2026-05-30T10:42:59.250Z","2026-05-30T10:32:42.717Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.cdc.gov\u002Fmeasles\u002Fdata-research\u002Findex.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.\n\nNote: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.",74334.21765800001,{"id":60,"title":61,"slug":62,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":63,"probability":67,"createdAt":68,"updatedAt":69,"resolutionDate":56,"description":70,"summary":70,"volume1wk":71,"featured":28},"427938","Precipitation in Seoul in May?","precipitation-in-seoul-in-may",[11,16,64,65,66],"Precipitation","South Korea","Seoul",0.05,"2026-05-30T10:43:20.360Z","2026-05-30T10:30:37.772Z","This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Seoul in May, 2026, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration's information for the region\u002Fbranch of \"Seoul\".\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for \"ground\", the region\u002Fbranch is set for \"Seoul\", the element is set for \"precipitation\", and the period is set for the month of May at the https:\u002F\u002Fdata.kma.go.kr\u002Fclimate\u002FRankState\u002FselectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of May 2026.\n\nIf the relevant data is not available by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.\n\nThe resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.",14792.074232000003,{"id":73,"title":74,"slug":75,"category":10,"subcategory":16,"tags":76,"probability":78,"createdAt":79,"updatedAt":80,"resolutionDate":81,"description":82,"summary":82,"volume1wk":83,"featured":27},"448037","Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?","hantavirus-pandemic-in-2026",[16,52,77],"Hantavirus",6.25,"2026-05-30T10:42:46.620Z","2026-05-30T10:32:02.386Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a \"pandemic\" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a \"pandemic.\" A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",1207277.849095,1780676641048]