[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":86},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-maduro-prison-time-527":3},{"event":4,"related":43},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":18,"probability":19,"volume24hr":20,"volume1wk":21,"liquidity":22,"openInterest":23,"trendScore":24,"active":25,"closed":26,"featured":26,"startDate":27,"endDate":28,"createdAtRemote":29,"updatedAtRemote":30,"affiliateUrl":31,"polymarketUrl":31,"searchKeywords":32,"syncedAt":40,"createdAt":41,"marketCount":42},"141230","maduro-prison-time-527","Maduro Prison Time?","Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled \"United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra\".\n\nThis market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to \"No Prison Time.\"\n\nIf no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to \"No Prison Time.\"\n\nIf Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.\n\nIf the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Maduro Prison Time? is a political prediction market asking what prison sentence, if any, will be imposed on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in connection with a January 3, 2026 indictment in the Southern District of New York. The case centers on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy, with the market resolving according to the first sentence in the case, regardless of any appeal. If Maduro receives no jail time, or if there is no sentencing by December 31, 2027, the outcome resolves to No Prison Time.\n\nThis forecast matters because it ties a major geopolitics and courts story to a specific legal outcome for a sitting foreign leader. Traders are effectively pricing the expected outcome of U.S. proceedings against Maduro and alleged co-conspirators named in the indictment. Current market probability for any prison time is about 20.9%, suggesting sentiment leans toward no prison sentence, though the result remains uncertain. The market starts on January 4, 2026 and runs through the end of 2027, making it a long-dated event prediction with resolution based on official U.S. court or government sources.","POLITICS","Politics",[11,13,14,15,16,17],"Geopolitics","Courts","Nicolas Maduro","Trump","Venezuela","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fmaduro-prison-time-A4r6EUVlOoNy.jpg",20.9,1065.830288,17289.051758999998,59308.70293,32219.91343,17581.371257699997,true,false,"2026-01-04T17:37:27.126Z","2027-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2026-01-03T17:53:37.543Z","2026-05-30T10:40:21.449Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fmaduro-prison-time-527?r=predstack",[33,34,35,36,37,38,39],"maduro prison time?","maduro prison time? prediction","maduro prison time? odds","maduro prison time? probability","political prediction market","political forecast","political probability","2026-06-05T13:36:51.441Z","2026-05-30T10:43:17.678Z",0,[44,62,74],{"id":45,"title":46,"slug":47,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":48,"probability":56,"createdAt":57,"updatedAt":58,"resolutionDate":59,"description":60,"summary":60,"volume1wk":61,"featured":25},"31875","Republican Presidential Nominee 2028","republican-presidential-nominee-2028",[11,49,50,51,52,53,54,55],"US Election","Elections","World Elections","Global Elections","Earn 4%","Primaries","United States",2.75,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.975Z","2026-05-30T10:39:47.083Z","2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",9249335.794150999,{"id":63,"title":64,"slug":65,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":66,"probability":42,"createdAt":69,"updatedAt":70,"resolutionDate":71,"description":72,"summary":72,"volume1wk":73,"featured":25},"438327","Iran closes its airspace by...?","iran-closes-its-airspace-by",[11,13,67,68],"U.S. x Iran","Iran","2026-05-30T10:42:44.156Z","2026-05-30T10:38:40.231Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14\u002F) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firanian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14\u002F). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.aa.com.tr\u002Fen\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz\u002F3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.intellinews.com\u002Firan-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997\u002F).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.",6620506.11378,{"id":75,"title":76,"slug":77,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":78,"probability":42,"createdAt":81,"updatedAt":82,"resolutionDate":83,"description":84,"summary":84,"volume1wk":85,"featured":25},"371649","US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?","us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-329",[11,79,68,80,16,67,13],"Iran Ceasefire","Vance","2026-05-30T10:42:45.013Z","2026-05-30T10:39:46.810Z","2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. \n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.  \n\nThe meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.",2654417.6848280015,1780676603068]