[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":89},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-macron-out-in-2025":3},{"event":4,"related":42},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":18,"probability":19,"volume24hr":20,"volume1wk":21,"liquidity":22,"openInterest":23,"trendScore":24,"active":25,"closed":26,"featured":26,"startDate":27,"endDate":28,"createdAtRemote":29,"updatedAtRemote":30,"affiliateUrl":31,"polymarketUrl":31,"searchKeywords":32,"syncedAt":40,"createdAt":41,"marketCount":19},"16263","macron-out-in-2025","Macron out by...?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between January 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.","\"Macron out by...?\" is a political prediction market on whether Emmanuel Macron will cease to be President of France for any length of time during 2025. The event resolves to Yes if Macron leaves office between January 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, and No if he remains president through that deadline. If he departs before the end date, the market resolves immediately. The primary resolution source is official information from the French government, supplemented by credible reporting when needed. This event matters because it tracks leadership continuity in France, one of Europe’s most important political systems, and it has attracted attention from traders watching French politics, resignation risk, and broader world events. The current market probability is 0%, indicating that traders assign no active odds to a near-term exit at the time of the latest data. As a forecast, the market reflects sentiment around Macron’s tenure rather than a guarantee of outcome, making it a useful signal for political event prediction and France-specific search queries.","POLITICS","France",[11,13,14,15,16,17],"Politics","Macron","World","2025 Predictions","resign","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fmacron-out-in-2025-qFUc7czZE3Ev.jpg",0,2199.7777400000004,49538.155902,62144.5642,83766.70883599999,28390.2484806,true,false,"2025-01-03T19:35:04.095Z","2026-06-30T12:00:00.000Z","2025-01-03T19:28:39.855Z","2026-05-30T10:33:31.108Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fmacron-out-in-2025?r=predstack",[33,34,35,36,37,38,39],"macron out by...?","macron out by...? prediction","macron out by...? odds","macron out by...? probability","political prediction market","political forecast","political probability","2026-06-05T13:21:38.652Z","2026-05-30T10:43:03.249Z",[43,61,74],{"id":44,"title":45,"slug":46,"category":10,"subcategory":13,"tags":47,"probability":55,"createdAt":56,"updatedAt":57,"resolutionDate":58,"description":59,"summary":59,"volume1wk":60,"featured":25},"31875","Republican Presidential Nominee 2028","republican-presidential-nominee-2028",[13,48,49,50,51,52,53,54],"US Election","Elections","World Elections","Global Elections","Earn 4%","Primaries","United States",2.75,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.975Z","2026-05-30T10:39:47.083Z","2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",9249335.794150999,{"id":62,"title":63,"slug":64,"category":10,"subcategory":13,"tags":65,"probability":19,"createdAt":69,"updatedAt":70,"resolutionDate":71,"description":72,"summary":72,"volume1wk":73,"featured":25},"438327","Iran closes its airspace by...?","iran-closes-its-airspace-by",[13,66,67,68],"Geopolitics","U.S. x Iran","Iran","2026-05-30T10:42:44.156Z","2026-05-30T10:38:40.231Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14\u002F) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firanian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14\u002F). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.aa.com.tr\u002Fen\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz\u002F3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.intellinews.com\u002Firan-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997\u002F).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.",6620506.11378,{"id":75,"title":76,"slug":77,"category":10,"subcategory":49,"tags":78,"probability":83,"createdAt":84,"updatedAt":85,"resolutionDate":86,"description":87,"summary":87,"volume1wk":88,"featured":25},"57096","California Governor Election Winner","california-governor-election-2026",[49,48,13,79,80,81,82],"Governor midterms","California Midterm","rewards 100, 4.5, 100","California Governor",0.25,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.509Z","2026-05-30T10:32:16.807Z","2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nIf the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.",4083953.7799110003,1780676616444]