[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":83},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-lecornu-out-as-french-pm-by-381":3},{"event":4,"related":38},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":15,"probability":16,"volume24hr":16,"volume1wk":17,"liquidity":18,"openInterest":19,"trendScore":20,"active":21,"closed":22,"featured":22,"startDate":23,"endDate":24,"createdAtRemote":25,"updatedAtRemote":26,"affiliateUrl":27,"polymarketUrl":27,"searchKeywords":28,"syncedAt":36,"createdAt":37,"marketCount":16},"57727","lecornu-out-as-french-pm-by-381","Lecornu out as French PM by...?","On September 9, French President Emmanuel Macron named Sébastien Lecornu as the new French Prime Minister. He resigned on October 6 after his cabinet faced severe opposition. On October 10, President Emmanuel Macron reappointed him as Prime Minister, tasking him with forming a new government.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Sébastien Lecornu is no longer serving as Prime Minister of France for any length of time between October 10 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation\u002Fremoval before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation\u002Fremoval goes into effect.\n\nThis market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Lecornu out as French PM by...? is a political prediction market asking whether Sébastien Lecornu will stop serving as Prime Minister of France for any period between October 10 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The event focuses on the stability of Emmanuel Macron’s government after Lecornu was first named prime minister on September 9, resigned on October 6 following intense opposition to his cabinet, and was then reappointed on October 10 to form a new government. In plain terms, traders are forecasting whether Lecornu will again leave office before the market deadline, based on credible reporting and any resignation or removal announcement made before expiration. As a France-focused politics event, it reflects broader market sentiment around Macron’s ability to maintain a functioning cabinet amid parliamentary and public pressure. The current market probability is not provided in the data, but the active forecast remains relevant for traders following French political developments, event prediction, and government stability in the World\u002FPolitics category.","POLITICS","Politics",[11,13,14],"World","France","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Flecornu-out-as-french-pm-by-oOTcQKuWQG2U.jpg",0,47502.915319,13112.68035,7528.046217,16873.4106657,true,false,"2025-10-11T01:47:36.040Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2025-10-10T21:34:14.619Z","2026-05-30T10:31:40.072Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Flecornu-out-as-french-pm-by-381?r=predstack",[29,30,31,32,33,34,35],"lecornu out as french pm by...?","lecornu out as french pm by...? prediction","lecornu out as french pm by...? odds","lecornu out as french pm by...? probability","political prediction market","political forecast","political probability","2026-06-05T13:22:06.857Z","2026-05-30T10:43:03.722Z",[39,57,70],{"id":40,"title":41,"slug":42,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":43,"probability":51,"createdAt":52,"updatedAt":53,"resolutionDate":54,"description":55,"summary":55,"volume1wk":56,"featured":21},"31875","Republican Presidential Nominee 2028","republican-presidential-nominee-2028",[11,44,45,46,47,48,49,50],"US Election","Elections","World Elections","Global Elections","Earn 4%","Primaries","United States",2.75,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.975Z","2026-05-30T10:39:47.083Z","2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",9249335.794150999,{"id":58,"title":59,"slug":60,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":61,"probability":16,"createdAt":65,"updatedAt":66,"resolutionDate":67,"description":68,"summary":68,"volume1wk":69,"featured":21},"438327","Iran closes its airspace by...?","iran-closes-its-airspace-by",[11,62,63,64],"Geopolitics","U.S. x Iran","Iran","2026-05-30T10:42:44.156Z","2026-05-30T10:38:40.231Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14\u002F) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firanian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14\u002F). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.aa.com.tr\u002Fen\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz\u002F3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.intellinews.com\u002Firan-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997\u002F).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.",6620506.11378,{"id":71,"title":72,"slug":73,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":74,"probability":16,"createdAt":78,"updatedAt":79,"resolutionDate":80,"description":81,"summary":81,"volume1wk":82,"featured":21},"371649","US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?","us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-329",[11,75,64,76,77,63,62],"Iran Ceasefire","Vance","Trump","2026-05-30T10:42:45.013Z","2026-05-30T10:39:46.810Z","2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. \n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.  \n\nThe meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.",2654417.6848280015,1780676616746]