[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":86},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-israeli-forces-withdraw-from-beyond-the-litani-river-by-20260607234645733":3},{"event":4,"related":45},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":20,"probability":21,"volume24hr":22,"volume1wk":23,"liquidity":24,"openInterest":25,"trendScore":26,"active":27,"closed":28,"featured":28,"startDate":29,"endDate":30,"createdAtRemote":31,"updatedAtRemote":32,"affiliateUrl":33,"polymarketUrl":33,"searchKeywords":34,"syncedAt":42,"createdAt":43,"marketCount":44},"571194","israeli-forces-withdraw-from-beyond-the-litani-river-by-20260607234645733","Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes\" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.","Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Israel will announce that all of its ground forces have withdrawn from Lebanese territory north of, or beyond, the Litani River by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. The event resolves to Yes only if there is a clear Israeli government announcement confirming the withdrawal; a statement about a future or planned withdrawal is not enough. Credible reporting may also be used if it overwhelmingly confirms the expected outcome. This Middle East forecast matters because the Litani River is a key geographic reference point in Israel-Lebanon tensions and broader regional security developments. Traders are pricing in a low probability of success, with current market odds around 5%, suggesting sentiment leans toward a No resolution. As a prediction market, it reflects expectations about geopolitical actions, official statements, and the timing of military disengagement rather than a policy judgment. The market remains active and is being watched for any government announcement or corroborating reporting before the deadline.","GEOPOLITICS","Middle East",[11,13,14,15,16,17,18,19],"Litani","Politics","Rewards 50, 4.5, 20","Israel","Lebanon","Israel x Iran","Geopolitics","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fisraeli-forces-withdraw-from-beyond-the-litani-river-by-20260607234645733-7kQdmKOL5w_7.jpg",0.05,4653.607545,16763.643405,27478.45672,10519.243051,12851.588138,true,false,"2026-06-08T02:36:02.013Z",null,"2026-06-08T02:21:45.047Z","2026-06-16T10:02:00.810Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fisraeli-forces-withdraw-from-beyond-the-litani-river-by-20260607234645733?r=predstack",[35,36,37,38,39,40,41],"israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by…?","israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by…? prediction","israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by…? odds","israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by…? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-16T10:27:49.278Z","2026-06-16T10:08:25.438Z",0,[46,60,73],{"id":47,"title":48,"slug":49,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":50,"probability":54,"createdAt":55,"updatedAt":56,"resolutionDate":57,"description":58,"summary":58,"volume1wk":59,"featured":27},"429456","Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?","iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-may-31-945",[11,51,52,19,53],"Iran Ceasefire","U.S. x Iran","Iran",3.1,"2026-05-30T10:42:47.765Z","2026-05-30T10:37:12.706Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. \n\nAgreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. ",773488.0177810004,{"id":61,"title":62,"slug":63,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":64,"probability":67,"createdAt":68,"updatedAt":69,"resolutionDate":70,"description":71,"summary":71,"volume1wk":72,"featured":28},"108031","US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?","us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30",[11,65,53,16,14,19,51,66],"World","Nuclear",39.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.883Z","2026-05-30T10:38:49.653Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and\u002For nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAgreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and\u002For the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.",1609108.003832003,{"id":74,"title":75,"slug":76,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":77,"probability":80,"createdAt":81,"updatedAt":82,"resolutionDate":83,"description":84,"summary":84,"volume1wk":85,"featured":28},"237598","Iran leader end of 2026?","iran-leader-end-of-2026",[11,53,65,19,14,78,79],"Iran Regime","Rewards 50, 4.5, 100 Deprec",2.35,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.750Z","2026-06-16T10:07:06.068Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIf more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.\n\nIf no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.",1419392.740783,1781606238972]