[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":80},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by":3},{"event":4,"related":43},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":19,"probability":20,"volume24hr":21,"volume1wk":22,"liquidity":23,"openInterest":24,"trendScore":25,"active":26,"closed":27,"featured":27,"startDate":28,"endDate":29,"createdAtRemote":30,"updatedAtRemote":31,"affiliateUrl":32,"polymarketUrl":32,"searchKeywords":33,"syncedAt":41,"createdAt":42,"marketCount":20},"386759","israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by","Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Israel and Hezbollah will reach a permanent peace agreement by the deadline of 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026. The forecast focuses on a lasting end to military hostilities, not a temporary ceasefire extension or other short-term arrangement. To resolve “Yes,” the market requires either a written agreement formally adopted by both sides or clear public confirmation that a qualifying permanent deal has been definitively reached. In a broader regional context, the event also reflects ongoing risk around Lebanon, Israel, and Iran-linked tensions. Market sentiment is currently extremely bearish on a lasting agreement, with the listed probability at 0%, suggesting traders see no expected outcome of a permanent peace deal before expiry. As a prediction market, the event tracks odds and trader expectations around whether diplomacy can produce an explicit, durable settlement rather than another temporary pause in hostilities.","GEOPOLITICS","Geopolitics",[11,13,14,15,16,17,18],"Iran","Israel","Israel x Iran","Iran Ceasefire","Lebanon","Hezbollah","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fisrael-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by-lKSpOYikSsyN.jpg",0,92277.022289,1335645.2238909965,139857.80069,743960.892471,474803.6384497989,true,false,"2026-04-16T23:56:58.321Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","2026-04-16T23:19:30.637Z","2026-05-30T10:31:55.070Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fisrael-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by?r=predstack",[34,35,36,37,38,39,40],"israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?","israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by...? prediction","israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by...? odds","israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by...? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-05T10:35:02.016Z","2026-05-30T10:42:46.269Z",[44,59,68],{"id":45,"title":46,"slug":47,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":48,"probability":20,"createdAt":54,"updatedAt":55,"resolutionDate":56,"description":57,"summary":57,"volume1wk":58,"featured":26},"310530","Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?","iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpile-by",[11,49,50,16,51,52,13,53],"Trump","Middle East","Politics","U.S. x Iran","Nuclear","2026-05-30T10:42:44.555Z","2026-05-30T10:32:05.315Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.\n\nTo qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.\n\nAgreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",4017181.6218990027,{"id":60,"title":61,"slug":62,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":63,"probability":20,"createdAt":64,"updatedAt":65,"resolutionDate":29,"description":66,"summary":66,"volume1wk":67,"featured":27},"386788","Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?","israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by",[11,17,16,14,13,15,18],"2026-05-30T10:42:45.304Z","2026-05-30T10:36:14.427Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n",2228964.1721680006,{"id":69,"title":70,"slug":71,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":72,"probability":75,"createdAt":76,"updatedAt":77,"resolutionDate":56,"description":78,"summary":78,"volume1wk":79,"featured":27},"73130","Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?","will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027",[11,51,50,14,13,49,73,74],"World","Military Strikes",18.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.702Z","2026-05-30T10:32:16.867Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.",1710369.6938979982,1780676644782]