[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":80},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-cancelled-by-october-31":3},{"event":4,"related":41},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":17,"probability":18,"volume24hr":19,"volume1wk":20,"liquidity":21,"openInterest":22,"trendScore":23,"active":24,"closed":25,"featured":25,"startDate":26,"endDate":27,"createdAtRemote":28,"updatedAtRemote":29,"affiliateUrl":30,"polymarketUrl":30,"searchKeywords":31,"syncedAt":39,"createdAt":40,"marketCount":18},"57057","israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-cancelled-by-october-31","Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?","On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Fisrael-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09\u002F\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAnnouncements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to \"Yes\"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to \"Yes\".\n\nThe primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether the ceasefire agreement signed on October 9 will be formally cancelled by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise determined to be no longer in effect by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves \"Yes\" only if one side announces cancellation or if credible reporting reaches a consensus that the ceasefire has ended; allegations of violations alone are not enough. This makes the forecast highly specific and tied to official statements from the government of Israel or Hamas, with Reuters-style reporting and other credible news sources relevant to resolution. The event matters because any change in the ceasefire’s status would affect the Gaza conflict, regional diplomacy, and broader Middle East market sentiment. As a prediction market, it reflects traders’ expectations about whether the ceasefire can hold through the deadline. Current market probability is 0%, indicating no priced expectation of cancellation at present, though odds can shift quickly as new developments emerge. The event remains active and is closely watched in Israel, Gaza, and the wider world geopolitical category.","GEOPOLITICS","Israel",[11,13,14,15,16],"Geopolitics","World","Middle East","Gaza","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fisrael-x-hamas-ceasefire-cancelled-by-october-31-APMH1GLpv6ia.jpg",0,254.88979399999997,1560920.3989269985,5928.3228,15761.885787,469589.2291350995,true,false,"2025-10-10T15:27:24.489Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","2025-10-09T18:12:31.332Z","2026-05-30T10:31:52.407Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fisrael-x-hamas-ceasefire-cancelled-by-october-31?r=predstack",[32,33,34,35,36,37,38],"israel x hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?","israel x hamas ceasefire cancelled by...? prediction","israel x hamas ceasefire cancelled by...? odds","israel x hamas ceasefire cancelled by...? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-05T10:34:47.589Z","2026-05-30T10:42:46.009Z",[42,55,69],{"id":43,"title":44,"slug":45,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":46,"probability":18,"createdAt":51,"updatedAt":52,"resolutionDate":27,"description":53,"summary":53,"volume1wk":54,"featured":25},"139507","Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?","will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-june-30",[11,14,47,15,13,48,49,50],"Iran","shah","Reza Pahlavi","Iran Regime","2026-05-30T10:42:47.481Z","2026-05-30T10:31:40.133Z","If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",871637.6565629999,{"id":56,"title":57,"slug":58,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":59,"probability":63,"createdAt":64,"updatedAt":65,"resolutionDate":66,"description":67,"summary":67,"volume1wk":68,"featured":25},"72347","Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?","will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026",[11,47,60,14,61,13,15,62,49,50],"Trump","Khamenei","Politics",14.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:48.165Z","2026-05-30T10:36:11.217Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.\n\nRoutine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.\n\nPartial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. \n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. ",640837.0614000001,{"id":70,"title":71,"slug":72,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":73,"probability":75,"createdAt":76,"updatedAt":77,"resolutionDate":66,"description":78,"summary":78,"volume1wk":79,"featured":25},"79192","Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?","israel-and-indonesia-normalize-relations-by",[11,14,13,74,15,62],"Indonesia",8.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:48.452Z","2026-05-30T10:37:33.279Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if both Israel and Indonesia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and Indonesia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",588546.4263069995,1780676614347]