[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":81},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-israel-withdraws-from-lebanon-by":3},{"event":4,"related":42},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":18,"probability":19,"volume24hr":20,"volume1wk":21,"liquidity":22,"openInterest":23,"trendScore":24,"active":25,"closed":26,"featured":26,"startDate":27,"endDate":28,"createdAtRemote":29,"updatedAtRemote":30,"affiliateUrl":31,"polymarketUrl":31,"searchKeywords":32,"syncedAt":40,"createdAt":41,"marketCount":19},"386812","israel-withdraws-from-lebanon-by","Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes\" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.\n\nThe Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.","\"Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?\" is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Israel will announce that all of its ground forces have withdrawn from Lebanese territory by the market deadline. The event resolves to Yes only if Israel makes that announcement by 11:59 PM ET on June 30, 2026; a promise of a future withdrawal is not enough. For resolution purposes, Shebaa Farms is treated as Israeli territory, and the primary source is the Israeli government, though overwhelming credible reporting could also determine the outcome. This geopolitical forecast sits at the intersection of Israel, Lebanon, Iran ceasefire dynamics, and broader Israel x Iran market sentiment. Traders are effectively pricing the odds of a completed withdrawal rather than a diplomatic statement or partial pullback. The current market probability is 0%, indicating no priced expectation of a Yes outcome at the time of the latest update, although prediction market sentiment can change quickly as news develops. For observers following geopolitical event prediction and regional security developments, this market reflects whether a concrete Israeli withdrawal announcement will occur before the deadline.","GEOPOLITICS","Geopolitics",[11,13,14,15,16,17],"Iran Ceasefire","Iran","Lebanon","Israel","Israel x Iran","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fisrael-withdraws-from-lebanon-by-iSLvDOMpOkAG.jpg",0,64978.559886999996,228955.71000300001,113489.74327,235658.034914,123873.94159840001,true,false,"2026-04-16T23:56:56.611Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","2026-04-16T23:41:57.496Z","2026-05-30T10:32:05.460Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fisrael-withdraws-from-lebanon-by?r=predstack",[33,34,35,36,37,38,39],"israel withdraws from lebanon by...?","israel withdraws from lebanon by...? prediction","israel withdraws from lebanon by...? odds","israel withdraws from lebanon by...? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-05T13:09:27.133Z","2026-05-30T10:42:51.863Z",[43,58,69],{"id":44,"title":45,"slug":46,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":47,"probability":19,"createdAt":53,"updatedAt":54,"resolutionDate":55,"description":56,"summary":56,"volume1wk":57,"featured":25},"310530","Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?","iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpile-by",[11,48,49,13,50,51,14,52],"Trump","Middle East","Politics","U.S. x Iran","Nuclear","2026-05-30T10:42:44.555Z","2026-05-30T10:32:05.315Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.\n\nTo qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.\n\nAgreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",4017181.6218990027,{"id":59,"title":60,"slug":61,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":62,"probability":19,"createdAt":64,"updatedAt":65,"resolutionDate":66,"description":67,"summary":67,"volume1wk":68,"featured":26},"386788","Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?","israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by",[11,15,13,16,14,17,63],"Hezbollah","2026-05-30T10:42:45.304Z","2026-05-30T10:36:14.427Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n",2228964.1721680006,{"id":70,"title":71,"slug":72,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":73,"probability":76,"createdAt":77,"updatedAt":78,"resolutionDate":55,"description":79,"summary":79,"volume1wk":80,"featured":26},"73130","Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?","will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027",[11,50,49,16,14,48,74,75],"World","Military Strikes",18.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.702Z","2026-05-30T10:32:16.867Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.",1710369.6938979982,1780676606506]