[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":81},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-israel-ground-operation-in-iran-confirmed-by":3},{"event":4,"related":41},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":17,"probability":18,"volume24hr":19,"volume1wk":20,"liquidity":21,"openInterest":22,"trendScore":23,"active":24,"closed":25,"featured":25,"startDate":26,"endDate":27,"createdAtRemote":28,"updatedAtRemote":29,"affiliateUrl":30,"polymarketUrl":30,"searchKeywords":31,"syncedAt":39,"createdAt":40,"marketCount":18},"279977","israel-ground-operation-in-iran-confirmed-by","Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if participation by Israeli military personnel in a ground operation in Iran on or after February 28, 2026, is confirmed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA \"ground operation\" is defined as a military operation that involves Israeli military ground forces conducting operations within Iranian territory.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving Israeli troops on the ground within the terrestrial territory of Iran will qualify.\n\nOfficial confirmation by the Israeli military of personnel operating on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Israeli military personnel operated on the ground within Iranian territory durring the specified timeframe will also suffice.\n\nQualifying confirmations include statements such as the June 25, 2025, statement by IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir confirmed that Israeli commando forces operated covertly on the ground inside Iran during the 12-day war.\n\nConfirmations referring only to non-military Israeli intelligence activity, including operations by the Mossad or Shin Bet, as well as airstrikes, cyberattacks, standoff weapons, remote sabotage, or actions by proxies or third parties without Israeli military presence, will not alone qualify.\n\nIncidents that would not alone suffice include the November 2025 Mossad statement indicating its agents were present during protests in Iran, or the July 31, 2024, assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, widely attributed to Mossad agents.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the Israeli military; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice. ","Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether official or widely corroborated confirmation will emerge that Israeli military personnel carried out a ground operation inside Iranian territory during the defined window. The market resolves to Yes only if there is confirmation of Israeli troops conducting operations on the ground in Iran on or after February 28, 2026, and by 11:59 PM ET on the end date. Airstrikes, maritime actions, cyberattacks, proxy activity, or intelligence operations by Mossad or Shin Bet do not qualify unless they involve Israeli military ground forces in Iran.\n\nThis event matters because it tests the possibility of a direct Israeli-Iranian ground incursion, a significant escalation in the Middle East and a closely watched development in geopolitics. Traders in this prediction market are forecasting an outcome based on official Israeli military statements or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThe market is currently pricing this event at 0% probability, indicating that sentiment expects no qualifying confirmation before the deadline. The forecast window runs from March 17, 2026, through May 31, 2026, making this a time-bound event prediction focused on a highly specific military threshold.","GEOPOLITICS","Geopolitics",[11,13,14,15,16],"Israel","Iran","Middle East","Israel x Iran","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwill-israel-launch-a-major-ground-offensive-in-lebanon-by-december-31-5OgalKHi_0iX.jpg",0,3954.634068,78961.32155899999,34743.67392,36437.350243,32614.448285699997,true,false,"2026-03-17T21:51:06.538Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","2026-03-17T15:48:10.990Z","2026-06-16T10:01:57.012Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fisrael-ground-operation-in-iran-confirmed-by?r=predstack",[32,33,34,35,36,37,38],"israel ground operation in iran confirmed by...?","israel ground operation in iran confirmed by...? prediction","israel ground operation in iran confirmed by...? odds","israel ground operation in iran confirmed by...? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-16T10:08:05.836Z","2026-05-30T10:43:08.214Z",[42,58,70],{"id":43,"title":44,"slug":45,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":46,"probability":18,"createdAt":53,"updatedAt":54,"resolutionDate":55,"description":56,"summary":56,"volume1wk":57,"featured":24},"310530","Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?","iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpile-by",[11,47,15,48,49,50,14,51,52],"Trump","Iran Ceasefire","Politics","U.S. x Iran","Nuclear","Negotiation Topics","2026-05-30T10:42:44.555Z","2026-06-16T10:02:41.231Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.\n\nTo qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.\n\nAgreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",1350422.5297449993,{"id":59,"title":60,"slug":61,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":62,"probability":64,"createdAt":65,"updatedAt":66,"resolutionDate":67,"description":68,"summary":68,"volume1wk":69,"featured":24},"599086","US-Iran deal text released by...?","us-iran-deal-text-released-byptptpt-20260615224044572",[11,63,50,14,49],"Peace Deal",90.5,"2026-06-16T10:08:14.774Z","2026-06-16T10:05:13.139Z","2026-07-01T03:59:00.000Z","On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if any portion of the text of the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026 is made widely available to the public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement.\n\nThe “text of the agreement” refers to the actual textual wording of the written agreement, whether released through images of the physical or electronic agreement text, or through alternative verbatim disclosures of the text (e.g., publication of the text of the agreement in a news article). Public disclosures of the deal’s contents, without the public disclosure of the actual text of the agreement, will not qualify. Public disclosures of text from draft proposals prior to the version of the agreement announced on June 14, 2026, will not qualify. \n\nA qualifying portion of the text of this agreement may be made widely available to the public by any means, regardless of whether it is released officially, leaked, or otherwise disclosed. However, such released text must be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to be genuine text of the agreement.\n\nA joint statement or similar document will qualify only if it contains verbatim text of the written agreement itself or is itself the operative written agreement between the United States and Iran. A statement that merely announces or characterizes the agreement will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution sources will be official information from the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.\n",33166.259299,{"id":71,"title":72,"slug":73,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":74,"probability":18,"createdAt":77,"updatedAt":78,"resolutionDate":27,"description":79,"summary":79,"volume1wk":80,"featured":25},"386788","Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?","israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by",[11,75,48,13,14,16,76,63],"Lebanon","Hezbollah","2026-05-30T10:42:45.304Z","2026-06-16T10:01:41.812Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n",3214871.9922169973,1781606313770]