[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":83},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-israel-closes-its-airspace-by":3},{"event":4,"related":41},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":17,"probability":18,"volume24hr":19,"volume1wk":20,"liquidity":21,"openInterest":22,"trendScore":23,"active":24,"closed":25,"featured":25,"startDate":26,"endDate":27,"createdAtRemote":28,"updatedAtRemote":29,"affiliateUrl":30,"polymarketUrl":30,"searchKeywords":31,"syncedAt":39,"createdAt":40,"marketCount":18},"449163","israel-closes-its-airspace-by","Israel closes its airspace by...?","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Israel closes its airspace by...? is a political prediction market focused on whether Israel will initiate a major closure of its civilian airspace by 11:59 PM ET on the specified deadline. The forecast asks traders to assess the likelihood of a broad suspension, cancellation, or shutdown of commercial aviation affecting all of Israeli airspace or a majority portion of it. According to the market rules, limited delays, isolated regional restrictions, airline-ordered suspensions, or weather-related disruptions do not count. The event matters because an airspace closure would be a significant geopolitical and aviation development, especially given the Israel x Iran context reflected in the market tags and category. Market sentiment can shift quickly based on official aviation authority notices, credible reporting, or changes in regional security conditions. As of the latest data, the market probability is 0%, indicating the current expected outcome is that no qualifying closure will occur before the end date. The market runs from May 4, 2026 through May 31, 2026, making the timing central to any event prediction.","POLITICS","Iran",[11,13,14,15,16],"Israel","Politics","Geopolitics","Israel x Iran","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fisrael-closes-its-airspace-by-F65UW1ZQCDQ_.jpg",0,216413.38597599996,1481312.027388,95828.92394,525669.19976,571766.0859924,true,false,"2026-05-04T23:52:26.542Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","2026-05-04T20:46:02.543Z","2026-05-30T10:38:24.359Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fisrael-closes-its-airspace-by?r=predstack",[32,33,34,35,36,37,38],"israel closes its airspace by...?","israel closes its airspace by...? prediction","israel closes its airspace by...? odds","israel closes its airspace by...? probability","political prediction market","political forecast","political probability","2026-06-05T10:34:54.890Z","2026-05-30T10:42:46.145Z",[42,56,74],{"id":43,"title":44,"slug":45,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":46,"probability":18,"createdAt":51,"updatedAt":52,"resolutionDate":53,"description":54,"summary":54,"volume1wk":55,"featured":25},"435151","JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by...?","jd-vance-diplomatic-meeting-with-iran-by-876",[11,47,48,49,14,15,50],"Vance","Trump","U.S. x Iran","Iran Ceasefire","2026-05-30T10:43:07.582Z","2026-05-30T10:39:05.425Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between JD Vance as representative of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nTo qualify, JD Vance must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. \n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.\n\nThe meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.",33500.979857,{"id":57,"title":58,"slug":59,"category":10,"subcategory":14,"tags":60,"probability":68,"createdAt":69,"updatedAt":70,"resolutionDate":71,"description":72,"summary":72,"volume1wk":73,"featured":24},"31875","Republican Presidential Nominee 2028","republican-presidential-nominee-2028",[14,61,62,63,64,65,66,67],"US Election","Elections","World Elections","Global Elections","Earn 4%","Primaries","United States",2.75,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.975Z","2026-05-30T10:39:47.083Z","2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",9249335.794150999,{"id":75,"title":76,"slug":77,"category":10,"subcategory":14,"tags":78,"probability":18,"createdAt":79,"updatedAt":80,"resolutionDate":27,"description":81,"summary":81,"volume1wk":82,"featured":24},"438327","Iran closes its airspace by...?","iran-closes-its-airspace-by",[14,15,49,11],"2026-05-30T10:42:44.156Z","2026-05-30T10:38:40.231Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14\u002F) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firanian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14\u002F). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.aa.com.tr\u002Fen\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz\u002F3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.intellinews.com\u002Firan-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997\u002F).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.",6620506.11378,1780676602277]