[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":81},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-israel-announces-lebanon-ceasefire-extension-by":3},{"event":4,"related":42},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":17,"probability":18,"volume24hr":19,"volume1wk":20,"liquidity":21,"openInterest":22,"trendScore":23,"active":24,"closed":25,"featured":25,"startDate":26,"endDate":27,"createdAtRemote":28,"updatedAtRemote":29,"affiliateUrl":30,"polymarketUrl":30,"searchKeywords":31,"syncedAt":39,"createdAt":40,"marketCount":41},"527930","israel-announces-lebanon-ceasefire-extension-by","Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by...?","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel officially announces another extension of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced commitment to halt direct military engagement with Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nBoth announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23 and May 15, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify.\n\nIf a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.\n\nA qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end.\n\nAny form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify.\n\nA newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify.\n\nThis market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.","Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Israel will formally announce another extension of its ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah. The market resolves to Yes only if the Israeli government publicly confirms a qualifying extension, or a broader peace deal that explicitly includes extending the ceasefire, by 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time on June 30, 2026. Informal understandings, de-escalation measures, or temporary pauses do not count.\n\nThe forecast matters because it tracks the durability of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire first announced on April 16, 2026, and later extended on April 23 and May 15. For traders, the event prediction hinges on official Israeli statements and credible reporting, rather than Hezbollah confirmation. As of the latest data, the market is pricing the probability of a new extension at about 23%, suggesting traders see it as possible but not the base-case expected outcome. This makes the listing a useful indicator of market sentiment on Middle East tensions, ceasefire stability, and broader Lebanon-Israel geopolitical risk.","GEOPOLITICS","Israel",[11,13,14,15,16],"Hezbollah","Geopolitics","Middle East","Lebanon","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fisrael-x-hezbollah-ceasefire-extended-by-2-En32lSfFPU.jpg",23,8548.635619000002,26751.137576000045,27738.9616,9908.391329,17847.451402300016,true,false,"2026-05-26T20:07:33.607Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","2026-05-26T18:18:25.641Z","2026-05-30T10:38:50.078Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fisrael-announces-lebanon-ceasefire-extension-by?r=predstack",[32,33,34,35,36,37,38],"israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by...?","israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by...? prediction","israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by...? odds","israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by...? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-05T13:28:48.481Z","2026-05-30T10:43:09.963Z",0,[43,54,67],{"id":44,"title":45,"slug":46,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":47,"probability":41,"createdAt":50,"updatedAt":51,"resolutionDate":27,"description":52,"summary":52,"volume1wk":53,"featured":25},"57057","Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?","israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-cancelled-by-october-31",[11,14,48,15,49],"World","Gaza","2026-05-30T10:42:46.009Z","2026-05-30T10:31:52.407Z","On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Fisrael-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09\u002F\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAnnouncements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to \"Yes\"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to \"Yes\".\n\nThe primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",1560920.3989269985,{"id":55,"title":56,"slug":57,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":58,"probability":41,"createdAt":63,"updatedAt":64,"resolutionDate":27,"description":65,"summary":65,"volume1wk":66,"featured":25},"139507","Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?","will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-june-30",[11,48,59,15,14,60,61,62],"Iran","shah","Reza Pahlavi","Iran Regime","2026-05-30T10:42:47.481Z","2026-05-30T10:31:40.133Z","If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",871637.6565629999,{"id":68,"title":69,"slug":70,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":71,"probability":75,"createdAt":76,"updatedAt":77,"resolutionDate":78,"description":79,"summary":79,"volume1wk":80,"featured":25},"72347","Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?","will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026",[11,59,72,48,73,14,15,74,61,62],"Trump","Khamenei","Politics",14.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:48.165Z","2026-05-30T10:36:11.217Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.\n\nRoutine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.\n\nPartial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. \n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. ",640837.0614000001,1780676609357]