[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":80},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-israel-and-syria-normalize-relations-in-2025":3},{"event":4,"related":42},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":18,"probability":19,"volume24hr":20,"volume1wk":21,"liquidity":22,"openInterest":23,"trendScore":24,"active":25,"closed":26,"featured":26,"startDate":27,"endDate":28,"createdAtRemote":29,"updatedAtRemote":30,"affiliateUrl":31,"polymarketUrl":31,"searchKeywords":32,"syncedAt":40,"createdAt":41,"marketCount":19},"25815","israel-and-syria-normalize-relations-in-2025","Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if both Israel and Syria officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Syria, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Israel and Syria normalize relations by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether both countries will officially announce diplomatic relations by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The event focuses on a formal normalization step between Israel and Syria, with resolution based primarily on official statements from the two governments, though credible reporting may also be considered. As a geopolitical forecast, the market reflects trader expectations about whether a long-running regional divide can narrow through formal diplomatic recognition. The current market probability is 0%, indicating that traders assign little immediate expectation to a Yes outcome at this time. The event sits in the Israel subcategory and is relevant to broader Middle East and world politics, including the surrounding context captured in tags such as Israel, Syria, Geopolitics, and Trump x al-Sharaa. For prediction market participants, this is an event prediction centered on official diplomacy rather than informal contacts, making the wording of any announcement and the timing before the deadline decisive for resolution.","GEOPOLITICS","Israel",[11,13,14,15,16,17],"Middle East","Geopolitics","World","Syria","Trump x al-Sharaa","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fisrael-and-syria-normalize-relations-in-2025-cTktGZLyjnB_.jpg",0,1798.952358,24609.013644000002,30236.8901,46763.543692,14329.5582922,true,false,"2025-06-02T22:17:38.035Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2025-06-02T21:50:49.528Z","2026-06-16T10:02:00.254Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fisrael-and-syria-normalize-relations-in-2025?r=predstack",[33,34,35,36,37,38,39],"israel and syria normalize relations by...?","israel and syria normalize relations by...? prediction","israel and syria normalize relations by...? odds","israel and syria normalize relations by...? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-16T10:08:19.045Z","2026-05-30T10:43:12.471Z",[43,54,67],{"id":44,"title":45,"slug":46,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":47,"probability":19,"createdAt":49,"updatedAt":50,"resolutionDate":51,"description":52,"summary":52,"volume1wk":53,"featured":26},"57057","Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?","israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-cancelled-by-october-31",[11,14,15,13,48],"Gaza","2026-05-30T10:42:46.009Z","2026-06-16T10:02:03.037Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Fisrael-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09\u002F\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAnnouncements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to \"Yes\"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to \"Yes\".\n\nThe primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",1563959.2021769986,{"id":55,"title":56,"slug":57,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":58,"probability":19,"createdAt":63,"updatedAt":64,"resolutionDate":51,"description":65,"summary":65,"volume1wk":66,"featured":26},"139507","Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?","will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-june-30",[11,15,59,13,14,60,61,62],"Iran","shah","Reza Pahlavi","Iran Regime","2026-05-30T10:42:47.481Z","2026-06-16T10:01:34.730Z","If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",861628.423768,{"id":68,"title":69,"slug":70,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":71,"probability":75,"createdAt":76,"updatedAt":77,"resolutionDate":28,"description":78,"summary":78,"volume1wk":79,"featured":26},"72347","Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?","will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026",[11,59,72,15,73,14,13,74,61,62],"Trump","Khamenei","Politics",9.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:48.165Z","2026-06-16T10:07:30.319Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.\n\nRoutine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.\n\nPartial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. \n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. ",760380.653698,1781606274639]