[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":81},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-israel-and-lebanon-normalize-relations-before-2027":3},{"event":4,"related":44},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":19,"probability":20,"volume24hr":21,"volume1wk":22,"liquidity":23,"openInterest":24,"trendScore":25,"active":26,"closed":27,"featured":27,"startDate":28,"endDate":29,"createdAtRemote":30,"updatedAtRemote":31,"affiliateUrl":32,"polymarketUrl":32,"searchKeywords":33,"syncedAt":41,"createdAt":42,"marketCount":43},"73147","israel-and-lebanon-normalize-relations-before-2027","Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if both Israel and Lebanon officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Lebanon, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? is a political prediction market focused on whether the two countries will officially announce diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The event asks traders to forecast a specific geopolitical outcome in the Middle East: a formal normalization of ties between Israel and Lebanon, not just informal contact or media speculation. Resolution depends primarily on official statements from Israel and Lebanon, though credible reporting may also be considered if needed.\n\nThis market matters because normalization between Israel and Lebanon would mark a significant shift in regional diplomacy and could affect broader Israel, Lebanon, and Middle East geopolitical expectations. As of the latest market data, the probability is 27%, suggesting traders see a relatively low but meaningful chance of the expected outcome. The market opened on November 5, 2025, and runs through the end of 2026, giving participants a long horizon to assess event prediction developments, official announcements, and changing market sentiment. For search engines, this event sits at the intersection of politics, Israel, Lebanon, and geopolitics, making it relevant to users tracking political forecast odds and diplomatic risk.","POLITICS","Israel",[11,13,14,15,16,17,18],"World","Lebanon","Politics","Geopolitics","Middle East","Israel x Iran","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fisrael-and-lebanon-normalize-relations-in-2025-FaaHLeMMFHjV.jpg",27,5006.738601,12154.544774,19689.6033,49898.127247,10087.6533927,true,false,"2025-11-05T18:16:50.981Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2025-11-04T20:26:14.656Z","2026-06-16T10:01:40.483Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fisrael-and-lebanon-normalize-relations-before-2027?r=predstack",[34,35,36,37,38,39,40],"israel and lebanon normalize relations before 2027?","israel and lebanon normalize relations before 2027? prediction","israel and lebanon normalize relations before 2027? odds","israel and lebanon normalize relations before 2027? probability","political prediction market","political forecast","political probability","2026-06-16T10:32:00.833Z","2026-06-16T10:08:30.394Z",0,[45,58,70],{"id":46,"title":47,"slug":48,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":49,"probability":53,"createdAt":54,"updatedAt":55,"resolutionDate":29,"description":56,"summary":56,"volume1wk":57,"featured":27},"73106","US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?","us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027",[11,15,50,13,51,17,16,52],"Foreign Policy","Iran","Nuclear",77.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:51.722Z","2026-05-30T10:36:08.973Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and\u002For nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAgreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and\u002For the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.",230446.56788500014,{"id":59,"title":60,"slug":61,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":62,"probability":64,"createdAt":65,"updatedAt":66,"resolutionDate":67,"description":68,"summary":68,"volume1wk":69,"featured":27},"330194","Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?","will-a-new-country-join-the-abraham-accords-by-june-30",[11,15,63,17],"Gaza",16.5,"2026-05-30T10:43:23.248Z","2026-05-30T10:31:47.264Z","2026-06-30T12:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.\n\nCountries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.\n\nThe resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.",11972.422768999997,{"id":71,"title":72,"slug":73,"category":10,"subcategory":15,"tags":74,"probability":43,"createdAt":76,"updatedAt":77,"resolutionDate":78,"description":79,"summary":79,"volume1wk":80,"featured":26},"438327","Iran closes its airspace by...?","iran-closes-its-airspace-by",[15,16,75,51],"U.S. x Iran","2026-05-30T10:42:44.156Z","2026-05-30T10:38:40.231Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14\u002F) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firanian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14\u002F). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.aa.com.tr\u002Fen\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz\u002F3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.intellinews.com\u002Firan-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997\u002F).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.",6620506.11378,1781606231192]