[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":80},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-israel-and-indonesia-normalize-relations-by":3},{"event":4,"related":43},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":18,"probability":19,"volume24hr":20,"volume1wk":21,"liquidity":22,"openInterest":23,"trendScore":24,"active":25,"closed":26,"featured":26,"startDate":27,"endDate":28,"createdAtRemote":29,"updatedAtRemote":30,"affiliateUrl":31,"polymarketUrl":31,"searchKeywords":32,"syncedAt":40,"createdAt":41,"marketCount":42},"79192","israel-and-indonesia-normalize-relations-by","Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if both Israel and Indonesia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and Indonesia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether the two countries will officially announce diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes only if both Israel and Indonesia make an official announcement establishing relations before the deadline; otherwise it resolves to No. As a geopolitical forecast, it tracks a potentially significant shift in Middle East and Asia-Pacific diplomacy, with implications for regional alignment, foreign policy, and broader international recognition trends. The primary resolution source is official information from the governments of Israel and Indonesia, though credible reporting may also be used if needed. The market opened on November 11, 2025, and remains active through the end-of-2026 cutoff. Current market probability is about 8.5%, suggesting traders see normalization as possible but unlikely at present. This event prediction is relevant to users following Israel, Indonesia, Middle East politics, and world affairs, and it serves as a concise indicator of market sentiment around a low-probability diplomatic development.","GEOPOLITICS","Israel",[11,13,14,15,16,17],"World","Geopolitics","Indonesia","Middle East","Politics","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fisrael-and-indonesia-normalize-relations-by-li5jCvNLbZK9.jpg",8.5,93942.024947,588546.4263069995,65571.21461,35968.783669,236649.18328759988,true,false,"2025-11-11T22:18:38.908Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2025-11-11T21:45:50.953Z","2026-05-30T10:37:33.279Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fisrael-and-indonesia-normalize-relations-by?r=predstack",[33,34,35,36,37,38,39],"israel and indonesia normalize relations by...?","israel and indonesia normalize relations by...? prediction","israel and indonesia normalize relations by...? odds","israel and indonesia normalize relations by...? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-05T13:05:50.543Z","2026-05-30T10:42:48.452Z",0,[44,55,68],{"id":45,"title":46,"slug":47,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":48,"probability":42,"createdAt":50,"updatedAt":51,"resolutionDate":52,"description":53,"summary":53,"volume1wk":54,"featured":26},"57057","Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?","israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-cancelled-by-october-31",[11,14,13,16,49],"Gaza","2026-05-30T10:42:46.009Z","2026-05-30T10:31:52.407Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Fisrael-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09\u002F\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAnnouncements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to \"Yes\"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to \"Yes\".\n\nThe primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",1560920.3989269985,{"id":56,"title":57,"slug":58,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":59,"probability":42,"createdAt":64,"updatedAt":65,"resolutionDate":52,"description":66,"summary":66,"volume1wk":67,"featured":26},"139507","Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?","will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-june-30",[11,13,60,16,14,61,62,63],"Iran","shah","Reza Pahlavi","Iran Regime","2026-05-30T10:42:47.481Z","2026-05-30T10:31:40.133Z","If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",871637.6565629999,{"id":69,"title":70,"slug":71,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":72,"probability":75,"createdAt":76,"updatedAt":77,"resolutionDate":28,"description":78,"summary":78,"volume1wk":79,"featured":26},"72347","Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?","will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026",[11,60,73,13,74,14,16,17,62,63],"Trump","Khamenei",14.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:48.165Z","2026-05-30T10:36:11.217Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.\n\nRoutine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.\n\nPartial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. \n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. ",640837.0614000001,1780676601516]