[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":83},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-iran-x-oman-strait-of-hormuz-agreement-by-june-15":3},{"event":4,"related":42},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":17,"probability":18,"volume24hr":19,"volume1wk":20,"liquidity":21,"openInterest":22,"trendScore":23,"active":24,"closed":25,"featured":25,"startDate":26,"endDate":27,"createdAtRemote":28,"updatedAtRemote":29,"affiliateUrl":30,"polymarketUrl":30,"searchKeywords":31,"syncedAt":39,"createdAt":40,"marketCount":41},"514376","iran-x-oman-strait-of-hormuz-agreement-by-june-15","Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement relating to vessel traffic, transit management, tolling, or fee collection in the Strait of Hormuz, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Iran and Oman between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nStatements describing talks, proposals, negotiations, or non-finalized frameworks that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not qualify.\n\nAn agreement will qualify as a mutual agreement if it is confirmed as a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if the agreement isn’t formally announced by both governments.\n\nAgreements that include Iran and Oman as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Iran and Oman; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.","Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Iran and Oman will reach a publicly announced mutual agreement on vessel traffic, transit management, tolling, or fee collection in the Strait of Hormuz before June 15 at 11:59 PM ET. The event resolves to Yes only if an official agreement is confirmed by the governments involved or by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting; talks, proposals, and non-finalized frameworks do not count. This matters because the Strait of Hormuz is a strategic chokepoint for global shipping and any formal Iran-Oman arrangement could affect regional maritime policy and broader Middle East market sentiment. The forecast is currently pricing in a 19.55% probability, suggesting traders see an agreement as possible but not the base expected outcome. With the market running from May 22 to the June 15 deadline, the event prediction centers on whether diplomacy will produce a finalized deal within the resolution window.","GEOPOLITICS","Middle East",[11,13,14,15,16],"Strait of Hormuz","Politics","Iran","Geopolitics","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Firan-x-oman-strait-of-hormuz-agreement-by-june-15-NNYedGgPdibA.png",19.55,1290.236665,10502.249112,1802.19029,10777.16316,4156.2311241,true,false,"2026-05-22T21:47:13.995Z","2026-06-15T00:00:00.000Z","2026-05-22T19:54:26.412Z","2026-06-16T10:03:45.228Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Firan-x-oman-strait-of-hormuz-agreement-by-june-15?r=predstack",[32,33,34,35,36,37,38],"iran x oman strait of hormuz agreement by june 15?","iran x oman strait of hormuz agreement by june 15? prediction","iran x oman strait of hormuz agreement by june 15? odds","iran x oman strait of hormuz agreement by june 15? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-16T10:33:51.058Z","2026-06-16T10:08:32.609Z",0,[43,56,70],{"id":44,"title":45,"slug":46,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":47,"probability":50,"createdAt":51,"updatedAt":52,"resolutionDate":53,"description":54,"summary":54,"volume1wk":55,"featured":24},"429456","Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?","iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-may-31-945",[11,48,49,16,15],"Iran Ceasefire","U.S. x Iran",3.1,"2026-05-30T10:42:47.765Z","2026-05-30T10:37:12.706Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. \n\nAgreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. ",773488.0177810004,{"id":57,"title":58,"slug":59,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":60,"probability":64,"createdAt":65,"updatedAt":66,"resolutionDate":67,"description":68,"summary":68,"volume1wk":69,"featured":25},"108031","US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?","us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30",[11,61,15,62,14,16,48,63],"World","Israel","Nuclear",39.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.883Z","2026-05-30T10:38:49.653Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and\u002For nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAgreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and\u002For the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.",1609108.003832003,{"id":71,"title":72,"slug":73,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":74,"probability":77,"createdAt":78,"updatedAt":79,"resolutionDate":80,"description":81,"summary":81,"volume1wk":82,"featured":25},"237598","Iran leader end of 2026?","iran-leader-end-of-2026",[11,15,61,16,14,75,76],"Iran Regime","Rewards 50, 4.5, 100 Deprec",2.35,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.750Z","2026-06-16T10:07:06.068Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIf more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.\n\nIf no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.",1419392.740783,1781606238307]