[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":91},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-iran-leadership-change-by":3},{"event":4,"related":46},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":22,"probability":23,"volume24hr":24,"volume1wk":25,"liquidity":26,"openInterest":27,"trendScore":28,"active":29,"closed":30,"featured":30,"startDate":31,"endDate":32,"createdAtRemote":33,"updatedAtRemote":34,"affiliateUrl":35,"polymarketUrl":35,"searchKeywords":36,"syncedAt":44,"createdAt":45,"marketCount":23},"255195","iran-leadership-change-by","Iran leadership change by...?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nMojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.\n\nAn official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. ","Iran leadership change by...? is a political prediction market asking whether Mojtaba Khamenei will cease to be the de facto leader of Iran before the listed deadline. The event focuses on a potential leadership change within Iran’s ruling structure and resolves to “Yes” if Mojtaba Khamenei is removed from power, detained, or otherwise prevented from acting as de facto leader during the market’s timeframe. An official announcement of resignation or removal also counts, even if the departure takes effect later. The market runs from March 9, 2026 through December 31, 2026 (ET), giving traders a long window to assess geopolitical developments, regime stability, and credible reporting on Iran’s leadership dynamics. As a political forecast, it sits within the broader category of Iran regime and geopolitics events, where market sentiment can shift quickly on news about the Khamenei family, succession, or internal power changes. Current market probability is 0%, indicating no priced expectation of a leadership change at the moment, though odds can move as new information emerges.","POLITICS","Mojtaba",[11,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21],"ayatollah","Politics","Iran Regime","Geopolitics","Iran","Khamenei","Mojtaba Khamenei","Khamenei out","Mojtaba out","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Firan-leader-ship-change-by-6HjLf457Nt35.jpg",0,120527.72887600001,1094273.9888659997,173161.82936,1385043.3285,423178.4269697999,true,false,"2026-03-09T02:59:17.336Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2026-03-09T02:53:06.594Z","2026-05-30T10:36:56.009Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Firan-leadership-change-by?r=predstack",[37,38,39,40,41,42,43],"iran leadership change by...?","iran leadership change by...? prediction","iran leadership change by...? odds","iran leadership change by...? probability","political prediction market","political forecast","political probability","2026-06-05T10:35:48.336Z","2026-05-30T10:42:46.955Z",[47,65,76],{"id":48,"title":49,"slug":50,"category":10,"subcategory":14,"tags":51,"probability":59,"createdAt":60,"updatedAt":61,"resolutionDate":62,"description":63,"summary":63,"volume1wk":64,"featured":29},"31875","Republican Presidential Nominee 2028","republican-presidential-nominee-2028",[14,52,53,54,55,56,57,58],"US Election","Elections","World Elections","Global Elections","Earn 4%","Primaries","United States",2.75,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.975Z","2026-05-30T10:39:47.083Z","2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",9249335.794150999,{"id":66,"title":67,"slug":68,"category":10,"subcategory":14,"tags":69,"probability":23,"createdAt":71,"updatedAt":72,"resolutionDate":73,"description":74,"summary":74,"volume1wk":75,"featured":29},"438327","Iran closes its airspace by...?","iran-closes-its-airspace-by",[14,16,70,17],"U.S. x Iran","2026-05-30T10:42:44.156Z","2026-05-30T10:38:40.231Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14\u002F) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firanian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14\u002F). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.aa.com.tr\u002Fen\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz\u002F3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.intellinews.com\u002Firan-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997\u002F).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.",6620506.11378,{"id":77,"title":78,"slug":79,"category":10,"subcategory":53,"tags":80,"probability":85,"createdAt":86,"updatedAt":87,"resolutionDate":88,"description":89,"summary":89,"volume1wk":90,"featured":29},"57096","California Governor Election Winner","california-governor-election-2026",[53,52,14,81,82,83,84],"Governor midterms","California Midterm","rewards 100, 4.5, 100","California Governor",0.25,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.509Z","2026-05-30T10:32:16.807Z","2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.\n\nIf the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.",4083953.7799110003,1780676602248]