[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":85},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-iran-closes-its-airspace-byptptpt-20260609184135829":3},{"event":4,"related":39},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":15,"probability":16,"volume24hr":17,"volume1wk":18,"liquidity":19,"openInterest":20,"trendScore":21,"active":22,"closed":23,"featured":23,"startDate":24,"endDate":25,"createdAtRemote":26,"updatedAtRemote":27,"affiliateUrl":28,"polymarketUrl":28,"searchKeywords":29,"syncedAt":37,"createdAt":38,"marketCount":16},"577376","iran-closes-its-airspace-byptptpt-20260609184135829","Iran closes its airspace by...?","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between June 9, 2026, 3:00 PM ET and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14\u002F) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firanian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14\u002F). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.aa.com.tr\u002Fen\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz\u002F3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.intellinews.com\u002Firan-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997\u002F).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.","“Iran closes its airspace by...?” is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Iran will initiate a major closure of its airspace between June 9, 2026, 3:00 PM ET and the listed deadline. The forecast resolves to Yes only if Iranian aviation authorities impose a broad suspension, cancellation, or closure affecting commercial flights transiting, arriving in, or departing from Iran, and not solely because of weather. A qualifying closure can include a major regional airspace shutdown or a non-weather suspension affecting at least two of the following airports: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad (THR), Mashhad (MHD), Shiraz (SYZ), or Isfahan (IFN).\n\nThis event matters because airspace restrictions can signal elevated regional tensions, aviation disruption, or government security actions in the Middle East. Traders in this prediction market are watching official Iranian aviation notices and credible reporting for evidence of a qualifying closure. Market sentiment currently implies a 0% probability, though that reflects the platform’s reported pricing rather than a guarantee of the expected outcome. As with any event prediction, only a broad Iranian closure counts; airline restrictions, foreign no-fly zones, or weather-related disruptions do not.","GEOPOLITICS","Iran",[11,13,14],"Airspace","Middle East","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwill-iran-close-its-airspace-by-Djo8VXRKur_C.jpg",0,204281.01348500003,1839041.238883999,129114.8304,356961.709347,679675.8444876997,true,false,"2026-06-09T20:04:05.618Z",null,"2026-06-09T19:27:05.907Z","2026-06-16T10:06:04.000Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Firan-closes-its-airspace-byptptpt-20260609184135829?r=predstack",[30,31,32,33,34,35,36],"iran closes its airspace by...?","iran closes its airspace by...? prediction","iran closes its airspace by...? odds","iran closes its airspace by...? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-16T10:09:38.081Z","2026-06-16T10:07:53.091Z",[40,59,69],{"id":41,"title":42,"slug":43,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":44,"probability":16,"createdAt":54,"updatedAt":55,"resolutionDate":56,"description":57,"summary":57,"volume1wk":58,"featured":22},"357807","US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?","us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by",[11,45,46,47,48,49,50,51,52,53],"Trump","ceasefire","Iran Ceasefire","Agreement","10-point","U.S. x Iran","Geopolitics","Politics","Peace Deal","2026-05-30T10:42:43.363Z","2026-06-16T10:07:37.026Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",80346197.77405979,{"id":60,"title":61,"slug":62,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":63,"probability":64,"createdAt":65,"updatedAt":66,"resolutionDate":25,"description":67,"summary":67,"volume1wk":68,"featured":22},"504099","Iran ceasefire continues through...?","iran-ceasefire-continues-through",[11,52,47,51],100,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.405Z","2026-05-30T10:36:50.144Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET).  Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nThe US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date. \n\nConfirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.\n\nA qualifying \"kinetic military action\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. \n\nKinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify. \n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",25312735.30568604,{"id":70,"title":71,"slug":72,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":73,"probability":79,"createdAt":80,"updatedAt":81,"resolutionDate":82,"description":83,"summary":83,"volume1wk":84,"featured":22},"429426","What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?","what-iranian-demands-will-trump-agree-to-by-may-31",[11,74,75,47,45,76,77,51,52,50,78],"Sanctions","toll","Strait of Hormuz","Enrich","Uranium",11.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.605Z","2026-05-30T10:37:10.758Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nContinued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment.\n\nThe United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if:\n\n- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran.\n- Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.\n\nAgreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.\n\nAny definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.",3880525.7414259994,1781606255741]