[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":90},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-iran-ceasefire-continues-through":3},{"event":4,"related":41},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":16,"probability":17,"volume24hr":18,"volume1wk":19,"liquidity":20,"openInterest":21,"trendScore":22,"active":23,"closed":24,"featured":23,"startDate":25,"endDate":26,"createdAtRemote":27,"updatedAtRemote":28,"affiliateUrl":29,"polymarketUrl":29,"searchKeywords":30,"syncedAt":38,"createdAt":39,"marketCount":40},"504099","iran-ceasefire-continues-through","Iran ceasefire continues through...?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET).  Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nThe US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date. \n\nConfirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.\n\nA qualifying \"kinetic military action\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. \n\nKinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify. \n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","Iran ceasefire continues through...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether the US-Iranian ceasefire will remain in effect through the listed deadline. The market resolves to Yes if no qualifying US kinetic military action on Iranian soil is officially confirmed by the US government or established by overwhelming credible reporting before the resolution date. A qualifying action is narrowly defined as aerial bombs, drones, or missiles launched by US military forces that impact Iranian territory; other forms of conflict, including artillery, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks, do not count under the rules. The event matters because it tracks the durability of a fragile ceasefire in a high-stakes geopolitical conflict and helps summarize market sentiment around escalation risk. Traders in this prediction market are effectively forecasting the expected outcome based on developments in US-Iran relations and conflict reporting. The market opened on May 20, 2026, and remains open for one additional day after the listed end date to allow time for confirmation. Current market probability is 100%, indicating the market is overwhelmingly pricing in that the ceasefire will continue through the resolution window, though odds can still change if new reporting emerges.","GEOPOLITICS","Iran",[11,13,14,15],"Politics","Iran Ceasefire","Geopolitics","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002FIran Peace-2da5a9033d.png",100,5011267.90212,25312735.30568604,6475158.11589,13500479.123854,11394486.16594381,true,false,"2026-05-20T03:28:14.372Z",null,"2026-05-20T01:24:58.946Z","2026-05-30T10:36:50.144Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Firan-ceasefire-continues-through?r=predstack",[31,32,33,34,35,36,37],"iran ceasefire continues through...?","iran ceasefire continues through...? prediction","iran ceasefire continues through...? odds","iran ceasefire continues through...? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-05T10:30:06.154Z","2026-05-30T10:42:43.405Z",0,[42,57,73],{"id":43,"title":44,"slug":45,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":46,"probability":40,"createdAt":52,"updatedAt":53,"resolutionDate":54,"description":55,"summary":55,"volume1wk":56,"featured":23},"357807","US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?","us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by",[11,47,48,14,49,50,51,15,13],"Trump","ceasefire","Agreement","10-point","U.S. x Iran","2026-05-30T10:42:43.363Z","2026-05-30T10:40:08.539Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",55575856.145219125,{"id":58,"title":59,"slug":60,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":61,"probability":67,"createdAt":68,"updatedAt":69,"resolutionDate":70,"description":71,"summary":71,"volume1wk":72,"featured":23},"429426","What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?","what-iranian-demands-will-trump-agree-to-by-may-31",[11,62,63,14,47,64,65,15,13,51,66],"Sanctions","toll","Strait of Hormuz","Enrich","Uranium",11.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.605Z","2026-05-30T10:37:10.758Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nContinued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment.\n\nThe United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if:\n\n- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran.\n- Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.\n\nAgreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.\n\nAny definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.",3880525.7414259994,{"id":74,"title":75,"slug":76,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":77,"probability":84,"createdAt":85,"updatedAt":86,"resolutionDate":87,"description":88,"summary":88,"volume1wk":89,"featured":24},"108634","Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?","will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-june-30",[11,78,79,15,80,13,81,82,83],"Israel","Middle East","World","Khamenei","Reza Pahlavi","Iran Regime",2.15,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.921Z","2026-05-30T10:30:42.020Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.\n\nRoutine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.\n\nPartial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. \n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. ",2948970.489729047,1780676571896]