[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":83},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-iran-agrees-to-unrestricted-shipping-through-hormuz-by-may-31":3},{"event":4,"related":43},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":18,"probability":19,"volume24hr":20,"volume1wk":21,"liquidity":22,"openInterest":23,"trendScore":24,"active":25,"closed":26,"featured":26,"startDate":27,"endDate":28,"createdAtRemote":29,"updatedAtRemote":30,"affiliateUrl":31,"polymarketUrl":31,"searchKeywords":32,"syncedAt":40,"createdAt":41,"marketCount":42},"429441","iran-agrees-to-unrestricted-shipping-through-hormuz-by-may-31","Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization\u002Fpermission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.","Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? is a geopolitics prediction market on whether Iran will publicly agree to allow unrestricted commercial navigation through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The forecast centers on a clear pledge that commercial vessels may transit the strait without Iranian authorization, fees, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. General claims that the strait is “open” or that tensions are easing do not qualify under the market rules.\n\nThis event matters because the Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important shipping lanes, and any change in Iran’s policy could affect regional security, U.S.-Iran relations, and commercial trade flows. The market resolves to Yes if Iran makes a qualifying public agreement before the deadline, whether unilaterally or as part of a broader deal with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nCurrent market probability is about 4%, suggesting traders see a low expected outcome for a qualifying agreement before expiration. Resolution will rely on official Iranian statements and credible reporting.","GEOPOLITICS","Iran",[11,13,14,15,16,17],"Strait of Hormuz","U.S. x Iran","Iran Ceasefire","Politics","Geopolitics","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Firan-agrees-to-unrestricted-shipping-through-hormuz-in-april-1LMmi52BqSgA.jpg",4,71657.238492,485498.46900400025,67668.12753,212711.3879,195011.7854532001,true,false,"2026-04-29T02:44:55.717Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","2026-04-29T02:11:04.511Z","2026-05-30T10:34:41.387Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Firan-agrees-to-unrestricted-shipping-through-hormuz-by-may-31?r=predstack",[33,34,35,36,37,38,39],"iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by may 31?","iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by may 31? prediction","iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by may 31? odds","iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by may 31? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-05T13:06:30.492Z","2026-05-30T10:42:49.062Z",0,[44,58,69],{"id":45,"title":46,"slug":47,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":48,"probability":42,"createdAt":53,"updatedAt":54,"resolutionDate":55,"description":56,"summary":56,"volume1wk":57,"featured":25},"357807","US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?","us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by",[11,49,50,15,51,52,14,17,16],"Trump","ceasefire","Agreement","10-point","2026-05-30T10:42:43.363Z","2026-05-30T10:40:08.539Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",55575856.145219125,{"id":59,"title":60,"slug":61,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":62,"probability":63,"createdAt":64,"updatedAt":65,"resolutionDate":66,"description":67,"summary":67,"volume1wk":68,"featured":25},"504099","Iran ceasefire continues through...?","iran-ceasefire-continues-through",[11,16,15,17],100,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.405Z","2026-05-30T10:36:50.144Z",null,"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET).  Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nThe US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date. \n\nConfirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.\n\nA qualifying \"kinetic military action\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. \n\nKinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify. \n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",25312735.30568604,{"id":70,"title":71,"slug":72,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":73,"probability":78,"createdAt":79,"updatedAt":80,"resolutionDate":28,"description":81,"summary":81,"volume1wk":82,"featured":25},"429426","What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?","what-iranian-demands-will-trump-agree-to-by-may-31",[11,74,75,15,49,13,76,17,16,14,77],"Sanctions","toll","Enrich","Uranium",11.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.605Z","2026-05-30T10:37:10.758Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nContinued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment.\n\nThe United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if:\n\n- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran.\n- Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.\n\nAgreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.\n\nAny definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.",3880525.7414259994,1780676606520]