[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":81},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-iran-agrees-to-unrestricted-shipping-through-hormuz-by-june-30":3},{"event":4,"related":43},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":18,"probability":19,"volume24hr":20,"volume1wk":21,"liquidity":22,"openInterest":23,"trendScore":24,"active":25,"closed":26,"featured":26,"startDate":27,"endDate":28,"createdAtRemote":29,"updatedAtRemote":30,"affiliateUrl":31,"polymarketUrl":31,"searchKeywords":32,"syncedAt":40,"createdAt":41,"marketCount":42},"530966","iran-agrees-to-unrestricted-shipping-through-hormuz-by-june-30","Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization\u002Fpermission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.","Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Iran will publicly agree to allow unrestricted commercial navigation through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The event resolves to Yes only if Iran clearly states that commercial vessels may transit without Iranian authorization, fees, or other restrictions, or if existing Iran-imposed limits tied to the US-Iran conflict are definitively lifted without replacement. Broad statements about the strait being open, stable, or secure do not qualify.\n\nThis forecast matters because the Strait of Hormuz is a critical global shipping route, and any change in Iranian policy could affect regional tensions, U.S. x Iran relations, and broader Middle East market sentiment. Traders in this prediction market are effectively pricing the chance of a public Iranian pledge or agreement before the deadline. As of now, the market implies about a 31% probability of a Yes outcome, suggesting modest but not dominant expectations for unrestricted passage to be formally recognized before the end date. The event is active from May 27, 2026 through June 30, 2026, and resolution will depend on official Iranian statements and credible reporting.","GEOPOLITICS","Iran Ceasefire",[11,13,14,15,16,17],"Iran","Geopolitics","Strait of Hormuz","U.S. x Iran","Politics","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Firan-agrees-to-unrestricted-shipping-through-hormuz-in-april-1LMmi52BqSgA.jpg",31,2478.820786999999,11283.946365000034,35941.8512,6351.919292,11812.96454300001,true,false,"2026-05-27T16:55:29.775Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","2026-05-27T14:48:24.214Z","2026-05-30T10:31:13.317Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Firan-agrees-to-unrestricted-shipping-through-hormuz-by-june-30?r=predstack",[33,34,35,36,37,38,39],"iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30?","iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30? prediction","iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30? odds","iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-05T13:43:46.952Z","2026-05-30T10:43:24.337Z",0,[44,56,70],{"id":45,"title":46,"slug":47,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":48,"probability":50,"createdAt":51,"updatedAt":52,"resolutionDate":53,"description":54,"summary":54,"volume1wk":55,"featured":26},"429471","US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?","us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-may-31-974",[11,49,16,13,14],"Middle East",4.65,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.462Z","2026-05-30T10:40:10.204Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and\u002For nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAgreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and\u002For the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.",4599922.648822007,{"id":57,"title":58,"slug":59,"category":10,"subcategory":13,"tags":60,"probability":42,"createdAt":65,"updatedAt":66,"resolutionDate":67,"description":68,"summary":68,"volume1wk":69,"featured":25},"357807","US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?","us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by",[13,61,62,11,63,64,16,14,17],"Trump","ceasefire","Agreement","10-point","2026-05-30T10:42:43.363Z","2026-05-30T10:40:08.539Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",55575856.145219125,{"id":71,"title":72,"slug":73,"category":10,"subcategory":13,"tags":74,"probability":75,"createdAt":76,"updatedAt":77,"resolutionDate":78,"description":79,"summary":79,"volume1wk":80,"featured":25},"504099","Iran ceasefire continues through...?","iran-ceasefire-continues-through",[13,17,11,14],100,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.405Z","2026-05-30T10:36:50.144Z",null,"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET).  Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nThe US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date. \n\nConfirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.\n\nA qualifying \"kinetic military action\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. \n\nKinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify. \n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",25312735.30568604,1780676644827]