[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":81},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-may-31-945":3},{"event":4,"related":42},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":17,"probability":18,"volume24hr":19,"volume1wk":20,"liquidity":21,"openInterest":22,"trendScore":23,"active":24,"closed":25,"featured":24,"startDate":26,"endDate":27,"createdAtRemote":28,"updatedAtRemote":29,"affiliateUrl":30,"polymarketUrl":30,"searchKeywords":31,"syncedAt":39,"createdAt":40,"marketCount":41},"429456","iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-may-31-945","Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. \n\nAgreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. ","Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? is a geopolitics prediction market in the Middle East focused on whether Iran will publicly commit to ending all uranium enrichment by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The forecast resolves to Yes if Iran makes a qualifying public pledge by the deadline, either unilaterally or as part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel; a temporary commitment or a pledge tied to a broader peace process also counts. By contrast, mere limits on enrichment levels do not qualify, which makes the wording of any announcement critical to the event prediction.\n\nThis market matters because uranium enrichment is central to U.S.-Iran tensions, regional security, and wider nonproliferation efforts. As a prediction market, it reflects trader sentiment on the odds of a diplomatic breakthrough before the end date. The current market probability is about 3.1%, suggesting traders see a Yes outcome as unlikely, though not impossible. The market’s resolution will depend on credible reporting and any official Iranian statement made before the deadline.","GEOPOLITICS","Middle East",[11,13,14,15,16],"Iran Ceasefire","U.S. x Iran","Geopolitics","Iran","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Firan-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-before-july-G-riWTpXuKoj.jpg",3.1,126895.06664199996,773488.0177810004,44486.77424,431007.709012,304391.29350330005,true,false,"2026-04-29T02:45:03.645Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","2026-04-29T02:18:20.309Z","2026-05-30T10:37:12.706Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Firan-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-may-31-945?r=predstack",[32,33,34,35,36,37,38],"iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by may 31?","iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by may 31? prediction","iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by may 31? odds","iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by may 31? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-05T10:36:47.519Z","2026-05-30T10:42:47.765Z",0,[43,58,71],{"id":44,"title":45,"slug":46,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":47,"probability":52,"createdAt":53,"updatedAt":54,"resolutionDate":55,"description":56,"summary":56,"volume1wk":57,"featured":25},"237598","Iran leader end of 2026?","iran-leader-end-of-2026",[11,16,48,15,49,50,51],"World","Politics","Iran Regime","Rewards 50, 4.5, 100",3.25,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.750Z","2026-05-30T10:37:17.975Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.\n\nFormal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.\n\nIf more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.\n\nIndicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.\n\nSymbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.\n\nIf no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.",1680926.657231,{"id":59,"title":60,"slug":61,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":62,"probability":65,"createdAt":66,"updatedAt":67,"resolutionDate":68,"description":69,"summary":69,"volume1wk":70,"featured":25},"108031","US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?","us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30",[11,48,16,63,49,15,13,64],"Israel","Nuclear",39.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:45.883Z","2026-05-30T10:38:49.653Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and\u002For nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\", regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAgreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and\u002For the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.",1609108.003832003,{"id":72,"title":73,"slug":74,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":75,"probability":41,"createdAt":76,"updatedAt":77,"resolutionDate":78,"description":79,"summary":79,"volume1wk":80,"featured":25},"257462","Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?","mojtaba-khamenei-public-appearance-by",[11,63,16,15],"2026-05-30T10:42:57.625Z","2026-05-30T10:31:36.272Z","2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify.\n\nDigital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the image\u002Fvideo of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.",88862.70492500001,1780676606879]