[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":81},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-december-31":3},{"event":4,"related":45},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":20,"probability":21,"volume24hr":22,"volume1wk":23,"liquidity":24,"openInterest":25,"trendScore":26,"active":27,"closed":28,"featured":28,"startDate":29,"endDate":30,"createdAtRemote":31,"updatedAtRemote":32,"affiliateUrl":33,"polymarketUrl":33,"searchKeywords":34,"syncedAt":42,"createdAt":43,"marketCount":44},"326475","iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-december-31"," Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. \n\nAgreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. ","Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Iran will publicly agree to end all uranium enrichment by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The forecast centers on a clear policy shift: a qualifying agreement or pledge must commit Iran to stop all enrichment, whether announced unilaterally or as part of a broader arrangement with the U.S. or Israel. Partial limits, caps, or lower enrichment levels do not count. The market’s primary resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThis event matters because Iran’s nuclear program remains a central issue in Middle East security, U.S.-Iran relations, and wider diplomatic efforts involving Trump-era geopolitics. The prediction market began on March 31, 2026 and runs through the year-end deadline, giving traders a defined timeframe to assess diplomatic developments, official statements, and negotiations. Current market probability is 56.5%, suggesting a modestly favored Yes outcome, though market sentiment can change as new information emerges. As an event prediction, it tracks whether a formal Iranian commitment to end uranium enrichment appears before the deadline.","GEOPOLITICS","Trump",[11,13,14,15,16,17,18,19],"Nuclear","Middle East","U.S. x Iran","Iran Ceasefire","Politics","Geopolitics","Iran","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Firan-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-before-july-G-riWTpXuKoj.jpg",56.5,6500.63702,134028.05734000003,49571.8881,79750.260528,53373.113332,true,false,"2026-03-31T20:15:49.490Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2026-03-30T20:27:08.395Z","2026-05-30T10:32:20.307Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Firan-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-december-31?r=predstack",[35,36,37,38,39,40,41]," iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by december 31?"," iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by december 31? prediction"," iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by december 31? odds"," iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by december 31? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-05T13:12:42.610Z","2026-05-30T10:42:54.877Z",0,[46,56,69],{"id":47,"title":48,"slug":49,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":50,"probability":51,"createdAt":52,"updatedAt":53,"resolutionDate":30,"description":54,"summary":54,"volume1wk":55,"featured":28},"329654","US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?","us-obtains-iranian-enriched-uranium-by",[11,19,15,18,16,17],0.3,"2026-05-30T10:42:44.415Z","2026-05-30T10:30:55.379Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\n“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.\n\nQualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.\n\nA widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",5096916.237786994,{"id":57,"title":58,"slug":59,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":60,"probability":63,"createdAt":64,"updatedAt":65,"resolutionDate":66,"description":67,"summary":67,"volume1wk":68,"featured":28},"140725","Maduro's Wife Cilia Flores released from custody by...?","cilia-flores-released-from-custody-by",[11,18,17,61,62],"Venezuela","maduro",44,"2026-05-30T10:42:48.693Z","2026-05-30T10:31:50.686Z","2026-01-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Cilia Flores is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Cilia Flores is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nIf Cilia Flores is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nTransporting Cilia Flores to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\". \n\nTemporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",527246.269833,{"id":70,"title":71,"slug":72,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":73,"probability":75,"createdAt":76,"updatedAt":77,"resolutionDate":78,"description":79,"summary":79,"volume1wk":80,"featured":28},"206793"," Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?","iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-june-30",[11,18,17,13,14,74,19,16],"World",26.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:51.905Z","2026-05-30T10:33:25.593Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if\u002Fwhen the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. \n\nAgreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. ",222019.73939699994,1780676605500]