[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":85},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-india-strike-on-pakistan-by":3},{"event":4,"related":40},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":16,"probability":17,"volume24hr":18,"volume1wk":19,"liquidity":20,"openInterest":21,"trendScore":22,"active":23,"closed":24,"featured":24,"startDate":25,"endDate":26,"createdAtRemote":27,"updatedAtRemote":28,"affiliateUrl":29,"polymarketUrl":29,"searchKeywords":30,"syncedAt":38,"createdAt":39,"marketCount":17},"59301","india-strike-on-pakistan-by","India strike on Pakistan by...?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if India initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Pakistani territory by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Indian military forces that impact Pakistani territory (e.g., if an Indian missile or drone hits a target within Pakistan’s borders, this market will resolve to \"Yes\").\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching Pakistani territory, as well as surface-to-air missile strikes, will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of whether debris lands on Pakistani soil or causes damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or any operation conducted by Indian ground forces will not qualify as a strike under this market.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","\"India strike on Pakistan by...?\" is a Politics prediction market asking whether India will initiate a qualifying drone, missile, or air strike on Pakistani territory before October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes only if Indian military forces launch an aerial bomb, drone, cruise missile, or ballistic missile that impacts Pakistani territory; intercepted weapons, surface-to-air strikes, artillery, cyberattacks, or ground operations do not count under the event rules. The forecast matters because it tracks a major India-Pakistan geopolitical risk that could affect regional stability and global market sentiment. The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting, making this a news-driven event prediction rather than a policy or diplomatic outcome. Current market probability is 0%, suggesting traders are assigning no immediate odds to a qualifying strike at the moment. The event is active in the Politics category and remains relevant for prediction market participants following India-Pakistan tensions, geopolitical escalation, and military action forecasts.","POLITICS","Politics",[11,13,14,15],"India-Pakistan","Geopolitics","World","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Findia-strike-on-pakistan-before-august-x85XQfgodtQ_.jpg",0,537.956975,302176.90881499986,11747.136,19926.074974,93271.47833199997,true,false,"2025-10-14T13:04:29.818Z","2025-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2025-10-13T21:29:35.919Z","2026-06-16T10:00:29.352Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Findia-strike-on-pakistan-by?r=predstack",[31,32,33,34,35,36,37],"india strike on pakistan by...?","india strike on pakistan by...? prediction","india strike on pakistan by...? odds","india strike on pakistan by...? probability","political prediction market","political forecast","political probability","2026-06-16T10:07:58.167Z","2026-05-30T10:42:50.453Z",[41,53,71],{"id":42,"title":43,"slug":44,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":45,"probability":17,"createdAt":48,"updatedAt":49,"resolutionDate":50,"description":51,"summary":51,"volume1wk":52,"featured":23},"438327","Iran closes its airspace by...?","iran-closes-its-airspace-by",[11,14,46,47],"U.S. x Iran","Iran","2026-05-30T10:42:44.156Z","2026-05-30T10:38:40.231Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). \n\nAny non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).\n\nQualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14\u002F) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firanian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14\u002F). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.aa.com.tr\u002Fen\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Firan-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz\u002F3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https:\u002F\u002Fwww.intellinews.com\u002Firan-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997\u002F).\n\nWarnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nAirspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.",6620506.11378,{"id":54,"title":55,"slug":56,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":57,"probability":65,"createdAt":66,"updatedAt":67,"resolutionDate":68,"description":69,"summary":69,"volume1wk":70,"featured":23},"31875","Republican Presidential Nominee 2028","republican-presidential-nominee-2028",[11,58,59,60,61,62,63,64],"US Election","Elections","World Elections","Global Elections","Earn 4%","Primaries","United States",2.65,"2026-05-30T10:42:43.975Z","2026-06-16T10:03:36.054Z","2028-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.\n\nAny replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",4777429.576322999,{"id":72,"title":73,"slug":74,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":75,"probability":17,"createdAt":80,"updatedAt":81,"resolutionDate":82,"description":83,"summary":83,"volume1wk":84,"featured":23},"371649","US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?","us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-329",[11,76,47,77,78,46,14,79],"Iran Ceasefire","Vance","Trump","Peace Deal","2026-05-30T10:42:45.013Z","2026-06-16T10:07:26.988Z","2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. \n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.  \n\nThe meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.",4565895.467737994,1781809648602]