[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":81},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-how-many-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-week-of-june-8":3},{"event":4,"related":44},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":19,"probability":20,"volume24hr":21,"volume1wk":22,"liquidity":23,"openInterest":24,"trendScore":25,"active":26,"closed":27,"featured":27,"startDate":28,"endDate":29,"createdAtRemote":30,"updatedAtRemote":31,"affiliateUrl":32,"polymarketUrl":32,"searchKeywords":33,"syncedAt":41,"createdAt":42,"marketCount":43},"562974","how-many-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-week-of-june-8","How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 8?","This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 8, 2026, through June 14, 2026, inclusive.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nData for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). \n\nThis market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nOnly revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https:\u002F\u002Fportwatch.imf.org\u002Fpages\u002Fcb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.","How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 8? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on weekly shipping traffic through one of the world’s most strategic oil chokepoints. The forecast resolves using IMF Portwatch’s finalized transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz from June 8, 2026, through June 14, 2026, covering container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Because the strait is central to global energy flows, traders often watch this kind of event prediction for signals about regional risk, maritime disruption, and market sentiment around Iran, Hormuz, and oil logistics. The current market probability is about 2.05%, suggesting traders assign a very low chance to the expected outcome being relatively high compared with the market’s threshold or target range. The market opens on June 5, 2026 and is scheduled to end on June 14, 2026, with resolution based on the published IMF Portwatch data once the final date in the period is finalized. For search engines and prediction market users, this event tracks real-world shipping activity rather than headlines, making the underlying data source essential to the forecast.","GEOPOLITICS","Oil",[11,13,14,15,16,17,18],"Iran","tanker","Geopolitics","Hormuz","Rewards 50, 4.5, 20","Strait of Hormuz","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fwill-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-in-march-ERARnetK0FJm.jpg",2.05,4199.818423,50816.630097000016,18131.59115,22570.891182,20971.216470600004,true,false,"2026-06-05T19:56:28.872Z","2026-06-14T00:00:00.000Z","2026-06-05T18:37:50.384Z","2026-06-16T10:06:51.689Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fhow-many-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-week-of-june-8?r=predstack",[34,35,36,37,38,39,40],"how many ships transit the strait of hormuz week of june 8?","how many ships transit the strait of hormuz week of june 8? prediction","how many ships transit the strait of hormuz week of june 8? odds","how many ships transit the strait of hormuz week of june 8? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-16T10:17:27.284Z","2026-06-16T10:08:09.686Z",0,[45,57,70],{"id":46,"title":47,"slug":48,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":49,"probability":51,"createdAt":52,"updatedAt":53,"resolutionDate":54,"description":55,"summary":55,"volume1wk":56,"featured":27},"548813","Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?","will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-june-30",[11,13,50,16,15,18],"Trump",23,"2026-06-16T10:07:57.882Z","2026-06-16T10:01:39.417Z","2026-06-30T16:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nData for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nOnly revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https:\u002F\u002Fportwatch.imf.org\u002Fpages\u002Fcb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",342215.2553979999,{"id":58,"title":59,"slug":60,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":61,"probability":64,"createdAt":65,"updatedAt":66,"resolutionDate":67,"description":68,"summary":68,"volume1wk":69,"featured":27},"452977","Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?","which-countries-will-send-warships-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-may-31",[11,18,13,15,62,63],"Naval","U.S. x Iran",1,"2026-05-30T10:42:51.304Z","2026-05-30T10:37:34.769Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA \"warship transit\" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.\n\nOfficial confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.\n\nQualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.\n\nConfirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.",244008.35100300002,{"id":71,"title":72,"slug":73,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":74,"probability":76,"createdAt":77,"updatedAt":78,"resolutionDate":54,"description":79,"summary":79,"volume1wk":80,"featured":27},"542904","Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of June?","avg-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-end-of-june",[11,13,16,15,18,75],"Rewards 20, 4.5, 50",39,"2026-06-16T10:08:13.512Z","2026-06-16T10:02:30.577Z","This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for June 30, 2026.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nTransit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on\u002Froll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.\n\nData for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.\n\nIn case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.\n\nOnly revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https:\u002F\u002Fportwatch.imf.org\u002Fpages\u002Fcb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.",36700.57865,1781606254873]