[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":78},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-how-many-different-countries-will-israel-strike-in-2026":3},{"event":4,"related":42},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":18,"probability":19,"volume24hr":20,"volume1wk":21,"liquidity":22,"openInterest":23,"trendScore":24,"active":25,"closed":26,"featured":26,"startDate":27,"endDate":28,"createdAtRemote":29,"updatedAtRemote":30,"affiliateUrl":31,"polymarketUrl":31,"searchKeywords":32,"syncedAt":40,"createdAt":41,"marketCount":19},"79926","how-many-different-countries-will-israel-strike-in-2026","How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?","This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nStrikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.\n\nStrikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.","How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026? is a geopolitics prediction market asking traders to forecast the number of distinct countries whose territory Israel will hit with a qualifying drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026. The market resolves based on credible reporting and counts strikes on sovereign soil, while excluding the West Bank, Gaza Strip, Israeli-controlled territory as of the end of 2025, intercepted missiles or drones, and non-qualifying actions such as artillery, ground incursions, cyberattacks, or naval shelling. Embassies and consulates are counted by the country where they are located, not the country they represent.\n\nThis event matters because it sits at the intersection of Israel, Iran, the Middle East, and wider global politics, where each new cross-border escalation can shift market sentiment quickly. As a prediction market, it reflects the odds that traders assign to different levels of regional military activity over the year. The current market probability is not provided, but activity and open interest suggest sustained attention to the geopolitical forecast through the end of 2026.","GEOPOLITICS","Israel",[11,13,14,15,16,17],"Iran","Middle East","Politics","Geopolitics","World","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fisrael-pops-off-iosplqP2axN2.png",0,3482.971912,115163.27806600001,249457.50922,24600.906600999995,86181.9712198,true,false,"2025-11-13T16:02:36.311Z","2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2025-11-12T18:42:08.691Z","2026-06-16T10:02:00.226Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fhow-many-different-countries-will-israel-strike-in-2026?r=predstack",[33,34,35,36,37,38,39],"how many different countries will israel strike in 2026?","how many different countries will israel strike in 2026? prediction","how many different countries will israel strike in 2026? odds","how many different countries will israel strike in 2026? probability","geopolitics prediction market","geopolitical forecast","geopolitical probability","2026-06-16T10:08:03.267Z","2026-05-30T10:42:58.118Z",[43,54,66],{"id":44,"title":45,"slug":46,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":47,"probability":19,"createdAt":49,"updatedAt":50,"resolutionDate":51,"description":52,"summary":52,"volume1wk":53,"featured":26},"57057","Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?","israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-cancelled-by-october-31",[11,16,17,14,48],"Gaza","2026-05-30T10:42:46.009Z","2026-06-16T10:02:03.037Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https:\u002F\u002Fwww.reuters.com\u002Fworld\u002Fmiddle-east\u002Fisrael-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09\u002F\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAnnouncements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to \"Yes\"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to \"Yes\".\n\nThe primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",1563959.2021769986,{"id":55,"title":56,"slug":57,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":58,"probability":19,"createdAt":62,"updatedAt":63,"resolutionDate":51,"description":64,"summary":64,"volume1wk":65,"featured":26},"139507","Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?","will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-june-30",[11,17,13,14,16,59,60,61],"shah","Reza Pahlavi","Iran Regime","2026-05-30T10:42:47.481Z","2026-06-16T10:01:34.730Z","If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of this market, a \"visit\" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",861628.423768,{"id":67,"title":68,"slug":69,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":70,"probability":73,"createdAt":74,"updatedAt":75,"resolutionDate":28,"description":76,"summary":76,"volume1wk":77,"featured":26},"72347","Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?","will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026",[11,13,71,17,72,16,14,15,60,61],"Trump","Khamenei",9.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:48.165Z","2026-06-16T10:07:30.319Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.\n\nRoutine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.\n\nPartial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. \n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. ",760380.653698,1781606275475]