[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":78},["ShallowReactive",2],{"event-page-grok-5-released-by":3},{"event":4,"related":40},{"id":5,"slug":6,"title":7,"description":8,"summary":9,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":12,"image":16,"probability":17,"volume24hr":18,"volume1wk":19,"liquidity":20,"openInterest":21,"trendScore":22,"active":23,"closed":24,"featured":24,"startDate":25,"endDate":26,"createdAtRemote":27,"updatedAtRemote":28,"affiliateUrl":29,"polymarketUrl":29,"searchKeywords":30,"syncedAt":38,"createdAt":39,"marketCount":17},"36309","grok-5-released-by","Grok 5 released by...?","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" Grok 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public.\n\nGrok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5 (e.g. Grok 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4 similar to the progression from Grok 2 to Grok 3. Products labeled as Grok 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","Grok 5 released by...? is a technology prediction market asking whether xAI will make Grok 5 available to the general public by December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes only if Grok 5 is publicly launched, such as through an open beta or a public waitlist, and not merely through a private or closed beta. The outcome depends on official announcements from xAI, with credible reporting used as additional verification.\n\nThis event matters because it tracks the next step in Elon Musk’s AI product line and reflects broader market sentiment about xAI’s product release cadence. Traders are forecasting whether the company will move Grok 5 from development into a public release before the deadline. As of the latest data, the market probability is 0%, indicating no active consensus that the release will happen on time, though that can change as new information emerges.\n\nThe event prediction remains open until the market’s end date, making it a useful benchmark for AI and tech watchers following Grok, xAI, and related technology forecasts.","TECH","Tech",[11,13,14,15],"Elon Musk","AI","Grok","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com\u002Fgrok-5-released-by-XwUyaP10O5SB.jpg",0,402.33000000000004,11098.607735,3513.4877,23319.030704,4233.4448605,true,false,"2025-08-07T20:45:08.512Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","2025-08-07T20:12:50.816Z","2026-05-30T10:31:39.904Z","https:\u002F\u002Fpolymarket.com\u002Fevent\u002Fgrok-5-released-by?r=predstack",[31,32,33,34,35,36,37],"grok 5 released by...?","grok 5 released by...? prediction","grok 5 released by...? odds","grok 5 released by...? probability","technology prediction market","tech forecast","technology probability","2026-06-05T13:44:13.737Z","2026-05-30T10:43:24.786Z",[41,54,66],{"id":42,"title":43,"slug":44,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":45,"probability":49,"createdAt":50,"updatedAt":51,"resolutionDate":26,"description":52,"summary":52,"volume1wk":53,"featured":24},"57705","Which company has best AI model end of June?","which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-june",[11,46,47,15,48,14],"Big Tech","GPT-5","OpenAI",13.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:46.365Z","2026-05-30T10:34:07.757Z","This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002Fleaderboard\u002Ftext with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",1313459.0318739992,{"id":55,"title":56,"slug":57,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":58,"probability":61,"createdAt":62,"updatedAt":63,"resolutionDate":26,"description":64,"summary":64,"volume1wk":65,"featured":24},"117916","Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?","which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30",[11,14,59,60,15],"Business","DeepSeek",10.5,"2026-05-30T10:42:55.527Z","2026-05-30T10:40:19.799Z","This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nResults from the \"Arena Score\" section on the Leaderboard tab of https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.\n\nIf a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes.\"\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.\n",118988.89591899999,{"id":67,"title":68,"slug":69,"category":10,"subcategory":11,"tags":70,"probability":72,"createdAt":73,"updatedAt":74,"resolutionDate":75,"description":76,"summary":76,"volume1wk":77,"featured":24},"376503","Which company has the third best AI model end of May?","which-company-has-the-third-best-ai-model-end-of-may",[11,46,14,71],"Rewards 20, 4.5, 50",97.45,"2026-05-30T10:43:01.898Z","2026-05-30T10:31:30.911Z","2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z","This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F) when the table under the \"Leaderboard\" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.\n\nResults from the \"Rank\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002Fleaderboard\u002Ftext with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nModels will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https:\u002F\u002Flmarena.ai\u002F. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.",54539.83879999998,1780676594896]